Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 180836
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
336 AM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018

.DISCUSSION...

The main forecast concerns in the short term remain winds and fire
weather conditions. Focus then turns to increasing rain chances
this weekend with the next upper level storm system.

Strong cold front is pushing southeast across the region
currently, lying from near Vinita to Tulsa to Okemah. Some
impressive wind gusts were observed in western and central
Oklahoma earlier with the front, but the gradient is weakening as
the surface cyclone lifts northeast into MO. An optimal deep
mixing/momentum transfer regime will prevail behind the cold front
today, so another windy day is ahead. 925mb winds do drop off some
from the morning into the afternoon as the cyclone moves farther
away from the region, so there may be a slight downward trend in
winds during the afternoon when RHs should be at their lowest.
Since forecast fire weather conditions stay just below critical
levels, I have elected to just let the going fire weather watch
ride for now, leaving some room for uncertainty in the forecast
since RH is a sensitive forecast parameter.

Rain chances ramp up quickly on Saturday with the approach of the
next upper level storm system. The models have been consistent
for several days so feel comfortable going categorical PoPs in
some areas Saturday into Saturday night. Some higher PoPs were
maintained into Sunday as the upper low moves across the region.
Models still keep the warm sector well to our south, thus only
isolated storms were kept in the forecast across the south
initially. The ECMWF offers potential for at least isolated storm
activity beneath the upper low and along an inverted surface trof
axis on Sunday. Bottom line though...severe potential still looks
low at this point. The rain areas should stay progressive enough
to avoid any major flooding issues.

Below average temps will be the rule thru the weekend, with a
slight warming trend back to near average early next week.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   69  37  63  39 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   73  40  64  41 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   73  40  67  41 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   66  34  62  35 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   66  33  58  34 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   65  34  56  35 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   71  38  63  40 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   63  34  58  37 /   0   0   0   0
F10   71  39  65  40 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   74  44  69  44 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Fire Weather Watch from noon CDT today through this evening for
     OKZ054>056-059>061-064>066.

AR...None.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30



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