Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KTSA 250142
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
842 PM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

.UPDATE...

Some minor adjustments were made to the forecast tonight. See
discussion below.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

An upper trough extends from Ontario Canada southwest into the
central Rockies. At the basal portion of this larger scale trough,
an embedded PV max was spinning over western Nebraska, southeast
Wyoming and northeast Colorado. This system will continue to dive
southeast toward our region tonight and then move overhead late
Wednesday, bringing rain with possibly a few thunderstorms. At
the surface, a cold front was analyzed from near KC southwest to
PNC to near CDS. This front will continue south and east across
our region tonight, leading to a much cooler day on Wednesday.

There were no major changes to the forecast this evening. PoPs
were increased some to the north and west of Tulsa, and QPF was
updated based on the latest hi-res guidance. Thunder potential
will be minimal at best, and the updated forecast will confine
this to the west and south of Tulsa tonight. Updated text products
have been sent.

Lacy

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 624 PM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MVFR cigs expected to develop later tonight, mainly after 10Z,
as a front and associated showers move west to east into the
region. Cigs will likely lower to IFR Wednesday morning as rain
becomes more widespread.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 232 PM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Temperatures have risen into the mid to upper 70s across eastern
Oklahoma and western Arkansas under sunny to mostly sunny skies
this Afternoon. However, rain showers and isolated thunderstorms
loom on the horizon for Tonight as a cold front is poised to move
through most of the area Tonight. The shower and isolated
thunderstorm activity is expected to take place behind the cold front
and in association with the trailing upper level low moving across
the area Tonight into Wednesday.

After a brief lull in the rain chances on Thursday, showers and isolated
thunderstorms return to the forecast Thursday night into Friday morning
as another cold front and associated upper level shortwave move through
the region.

Dry weather is expected over the weekend and into early next week as
high pressure reigns supreme. Temperatures at this time are expected
to be at or above normals for this time of year.

The weather pattern becomes more active as we move into mid-week next
week with the threat for severe weather increasing.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   52  59  45  68 /  60  90  10  10
FSM   55  64  48  69 /  10  80  30  10
MLC   53  60  45  68 /  20  70  10  10
BVO   51  60  43  68 /  80  90  20  10
FYV   50  60  46  65 /  10  80  40  10
BYV   49  61  46  66 /  10  80  50  10
MKO   52  60  46  67 /  30  80  20  10
MIO   51  61  44  67 /  50  80  40  10
F10   52  59  45  68 /  30  90  10  10
HHW   55  64  45  70 /  20  60  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.