Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 260244
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
944 PM CDT Fri May 25 2018

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
Scattered showers and convection remained ongoing across Southern
Missouri and Northern Arkansas this evening in relation to a
mid/upper impulse drifting southeast just behind the precip. Some
of this activity was pushing through Carroll and Madison counties
in Northwest Arkansas. Across the rest of Eastern Oklahoma and
Northwest Arkansas...partly cloudy skies...light winds and temps
in the upper 60s/lower 70s were common.

Overnight tonight...the mid/upper level impulse is forecast to
continue to shift east southeast with the precip chances shifting
eastward across Central/East Arkansas. Some of the latest CAM
solutions also try to redevelop some showers/convection across
parts of far Southeast Oklahoma from any residual outflow
boundaries remaining within the higher terrain locations as the
impulse moves through the region. Latest meso-analysis indicated a
strengthening cap across Southeast Oklahoma from todays precip.
Also...the low level jet is forecast to remain across Southwestern
Oklahoma tonight. Thus...will carry chance pops for Northwest
Arkansas through next few hours and keep a slight chance pop for
far Southeast Oklahoma overnight...though confidence is on the
low side for Southeast Oklahoma.

Temperatures again tonight look to be close to previous nights
lows with dewpoints holding in the 60s. In response...will
continue with lows in the 60s for most locations and have added
only minor tweaks to hourly temps/dewpoint grids for the evening
update.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   69  93  71  94 /  10  10   0  10
FSM   68  91  70  93 /  20  10   0  10
MLC   68  91  68  93 /  20  10   0  10
BVO   63  93  64  94 /  10  10   0  10
FYV   62  88  63  89 /  20  10   0  10
BYV   66  88  66  89 /  30  10   0  10
MKO   68  91  69  93 /  10  10   0  10
MIO   67  91  68  92 /  10  10   0  10
F10   69  92  70  93 /  10  10   0  10
HHW   68  91  70  93 /  20  10   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
AVIATION.....12


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