Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 171542

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1042 AM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018


Mid and high cloudiness will continue to increase across eastern
Oklahoma and western Arkansas through the day, with existing low
cloud deck in Kansas and Missouri remaining north of the area. The
increased cloudiness and continued northerly winds should lead to
afternoon temperatures a few degrees cooler than originally
forecast. Have adjusted the high temperature forecast according to
a blend between the raw NAM and the latest RAP numbers. Otherwise,
the forecast is largely on track, with any precipitation likely to
hold off until tonight as last night`s cold front returns
northward. Update already out.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 649 AM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018/

Satellite shows MVFR clouds deck into southwest MO on the back
side of upper low centered over IA this morning. Clouds not
expected to impact AR terminals as system continues to move east.
Expect VFR cigs to continue at all TAF sites today with light
northerly winds gradually veering more easterly with time.
Shortwave trough approaches Arklatex after midnight which will
spread mid level clouds into southern terminals but any TSRA
should remain south.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 405 AM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018/

Early this morning an area of low pressure was positioned across
Central Missouri with a cold front extending southwestward
through Northwest Arkansas...far Southeast Oklahoma into the
Texas Panhandle. Behind this boundary...northerly winds and mostly
clear skies were common across Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest

Through this afternoon...the cold front is expected to push south
of the CWA and become nearly stationary across Northern Texas.
North of the boundary...northerly winds 5-15 mph and cooler
temperatures are forecast for the CWA with highs in the 60s/low
70s from north to south. These quieter conditions will be short
lived as another wave begins to shift eastward across the Desert
Southwest U.S. which will help to lift the cold front back
northward toward the Red River.

Increasing warm air advection with the front will aid in
developing shower and thunderstorm chances across Southeast
Oklahoma tonight and spreading northward across the CWA Sunday.
Instability looks to be marginal...though lift associated with
the front could allow for a strong storm near the Red River
tonight. The greater potential should reside south of the CWA
tonight...where the greater moisture should be. Instability looks
to increase enough Sunday that a slight risk of severe weather
potential could be possible. During the day the greater potential
looks to be across Southeast Oklahoma...closer to the frontal
boundary. By Sunday night the greater potential could lift
northward into Northern Oklahoma as the wave over the Desert
Southwest pushes into the Southern/Central Plains and across
Northern Oklahoma/Southern Kansas. The ECMWF continues to be the
furthest south with the low moving through Northern Oklahoma while
the GFS/NAM indicate the low moving through Southern Kansas.

Also Sunday associated dryline looks to move into the
CWA which could keep the greater precip potential closer to the
wave. Though there maybe some indication of precip developing late
Sunday night along/just ahead of the dryline. For now will
continue with highest pops along/near the Oklahoma Kansas border
late Sunday night. Precip chances begin to taper off Monday
morning from southwest to northeast and look to exit far Northwest
Arkansas Monday afternoon as the wave exits the region off to the

Another cold front is progged to move across the CWA during the
day Monday as the wave shifts eastward. Behind this
boundary...gusty northwesterly winds 20-35 mph and drier air
pushing into the region will aid in increasing fire weather
concerns for Monday afternoon. In the wake of the departing front
and upper wave...cooler conditions are forecast Tuesday with
possible highs back in the 50s. By the second half of next
week...a ridge of high pressure looks to move into the Plains with
southerly winds and warmer temperatures returning Thursday and
Friday. This will again create an increase in fire weather
conditions over the region.


TUL   65  45  64  49 /   0  10  70  50
FSM   71  50  64  50 /   0  10  70  30
MLC   69  52  68  47 /   0  30  60  20
BVO   64  38  63  46 /   0   0  70  70
FYV   64  43  62  50 /   0  10  80  50
BYV   62  41  60  51 /   0   0  80  60
MKO   65  47  64  48 /   0  10  70  30
MIO   59  39  62  49 /   0   0  80  70
F10   67  48  66  47 /   0  20  70  20
HHW   74  56  69  48 /  10  50  60  20




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