Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 181713
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1213 PM CDT Fri May 18 2018

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions will prevail with afternoon cu field developing
today, possibly becoming locally more enhanced over southeast OK.
Majority of thunderstorm development will again be to the north
and west, however a limited potential exist in parts of NE OK
after 06z. Valley fog potential tonight across NW AR does appear
less and will keep out of the forecast.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1037 AM CDT Fri May 18 2018/

DISCUSSION...
12z soundings show modest warming in lower low levels compared to
yesterday, with current observed temps trending in that direction
as well. Have bumped forecast highs a degree or two in most areas
as a result.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 555 AM CDT Fri May 18 2018/

DISCUSSION...

The discussion for the 12Z TAF forecast can be found below.

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Aside from sub-IFR valley fog at KFYV, and the potential for some
MVFR fog at the other NW AR sites, VFR conditions will prevail
today with few-sct afternoon CU and sct high cloud. Storm
potential will stay to the west and north of the sites thru the
period. The NAM suggests there may be some valley fog potential
again Saturday morning, but low confidence precludes introducing
in the NW AR TAFs at this point.

Lacy

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 312 AM CDT Fri May 18 2018/

DISCUSSION...

Main forecast concerns are storm chances and timing over the next
few days. The higher chances for storms will likely be in the
evening and overnight as we get storms moving into the area from
the west.

Early morning water vapor imagery shows an upper low spinning over
northern UT with a polar jet max rounding the base of the upper
trough across AZ. Storms across western OK were moving east out
of the low level jet axis and are expected to diminish before
reaching eastern Oklahoma by daybreak.

Dryline should again be active this afternoon, with convection
forming anywhere from eastern CO south through the OK/TX
panhandles and then spreading into western OK/KS. Upper ridge
builds across eastern Oklahoma during the day which should limit
the potential for daytime storms. There will be low chances for
evening storms, mainly north and west of Tulsa after midnight.
Saturday should be dry with any rain likely holding off until
evening. Storms on Saturday will likely form near the triple point
in southeast NE/northeast KS and form an MCS by late Saturday
night. This could affect portions of northeast Oklahoma through
Sunday morning. Front will extend across central KS on Sunday
afternoon and this could be a focus for some afternoon storms
affecting areas northwest of Tulsa.

Storm chances continue for the first part of the week with
continued above normal temperatures.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   89  71  91  68 /  10  20  10  20
FSM   90  69  91  70 /  10  10  10  10
MLC   89  71  90  70 /  10  10  10  10
BVO   89  67  91  66 /  10  20  10  20
FYV   85  65  87  66 /  10  10  10  10
BYV   83  64  89  67 /  10  10  10  10
MKO   88  68  89  68 /  10  10  10  20
MIO   86  66  88  68 /  10  10  10  20
F10   88  71  89  69 /  10  20  10  20
HHW   89  69  90  69 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....18
AVIATION.....14



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