Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 152010
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
310 PM CDT Tue May 15 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Cluster of strong to severe storms continues to push across
south central Oklahoma while new storms have developed across
southeast Oklahoma near McAlester this afternoon. These storms
will present a severe threat for large hail or damaging winds for
the next few hours as they move across the area. Areas across
northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas should stay dry for the
evening hours.

A shortwave trough noted in afternoon water vapor imagery is
approaching the Four Corners region and helping storms develop
over the higher terrain. Global models have picked up on this
feature and bring the remnants of this afternoon`s convection as
an MCS through eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas overnight
tonight into Wednesday morning. Temperatures on Wednesday, like
today, will be lower than the past few both due to convective
related cloud cover and the cold front which will be sagging
south of the area by Wednesday night.

Heights begin to rise for Thursday which will bring lower storm
chances and warmer temps. There is some indication that more
showers and storms could form Friday afternoon on the periphery of
the upper ridge but will leave out of the forecast for now given
rising mid level temps. Highs on Friday and Saturday will be back
in the 90s again.

Stronger front will arrive Saturday night into Sunday bringing
another chance for showers and storms and cooler temperatures for
Sunday/Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   66  83  64  88 /  20  30  20  10
FSM   66  86  65  89 /  20  30  20  10
MLC   65  84  64  87 /  20  30  20  10
BVO   63  83  62  87 /  20  30  20  10
FYV   62  81  61  84 /  20  30  20  10
BYV   62  81  61  83 /  20  30  20  10
MKO   65  82  63  86 /  20  30  20  10
MIO   64  82  62  85 /  20  30  20  10
F10   65  82  64  86 /  20  30  20  10
HHW   67  85  65  88 /  20  30  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....06

CORFIDI



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