000
FXUS64 KTSA 101927
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
227 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon and Tonight )
Issued at 227 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

Upper low over NE TX this afternoon will continue to move ENE
this afternoon, and northeast through AR overnight. Showers and
isolated to scattered storms will continue to fill in to the east
and north of the upper system this afternoon, with a gradual
shift in coverage from west to east this evening as the low lifts
into AR. Better thunder chances will remain across SE OK and WC AR
as these locations will be in better proximity with the colder
temperatures aloft. The upper low looks to deepen some tonight as
it lifts northeast, which will tighten the pressure gradient at
the surface. Gusty northwest winds are expected overnight across
NW and WC AR, but should remain below advisory criteria. Will hold
off on a wind advisory at this time. Rain should be east and
northeast of the forecast area by 09z.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Wednesday)
Issued at 227 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

Breezy northerly winds will continue into Thursday, but are
expected to relax later in the day. Settled conditions will
continue through the weekend, with warmer temperatures expected
Saturday and especially Sunday as shortwave upper ridging sets up
over the plains. The next upper system enters the plains in the
Monday-Monday night period, and will bring chances for showers
and storms along a dryline/cold front. Timing remains very much in
question at this time, and will be determining factor in severe
potential. Stayed fairly close to the NBM for temperatures during
this period. Opted for a blend of guidance for winds tonight and
tomorrow.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

Showers will become more focused to the southeast of I-44 early in
the forecast period, with an overall trend to VFR conditions to
the north. Elsewhere, MVFR to occasionally IFR conditions will
prevail into the early evening, with increasing coverage of
showers and scattered thunderstorms. Highest probability of TS
will remain at KMLC and KFSM between 20-02z. Conditions across
southeast OK and western AR will gradually improve and mostly be
VFR beyond 06z. Gusty northerly winds will also increase this
evening and through the end of the period behind a frontal
boundary.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   51  68  44  77 /  20   0   0   0
FSM   52  70  43  76 /  90   0   0   0
MLC   49  69  43  78 /  40   0   0   0
BVO   46  68  38  78 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   46  67  40  74 /  90   0   0   0
BYV   48  65  41  72 /  90   0   0   0
MKO   48  67  40  75 /  40   0   0   0
MIO   48  66  39  73 /  30   0   0   0
F10   49  67  42  77 /  20   0   0   0
HHW   49  68  42  75 /  50   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...14