Hazardous Weather Outlook
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FLUS44 KTSA 131805
HWOTSA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
105 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-141030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
105 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

...SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING / CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS W OF US 75 THIS AFTERNOON...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight.

TORNADO.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
ONSET...After 2 pm.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...Elevated.
AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
ONSET...Ongoing.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
ONSET...Ongoing.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
RISK...Elevated to near Significant.
AREA...Along and northwest of a Hugo to Muskogee to Jay line.
ONSET...This afternoon.

Area at greatest risk...west of highway 75 in northeast Oklahoma.

DISCUSSION...
An unstable and weakly capped atmosphere existed across eastern
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas early this afternoon. Strong
to severe thunderstorm development is expected during the afternoon
ahead of an approaching dry line, with storms eventually moving
into western Arkansas by late afternoon or early evening. The
strongest storms will be capable of producing hail to the size of
baseballs, damaging winds to around 70 mph, and isolated tornadoes.
The severe threat will shift east of the region by 10-11 PM.

Critical fire weather conditions are expected to develop behind a
dryline as it surges into our area this afternoon. By late
afternoon, the dryline is expected to stretch along or near
highway 75. To the west of the dryline, very warm, dry and windy
conditions will lead to very aggressive fire behavior.

South to southwest winds will gust to near 40 mph through the
afternoon. A gradual drop in intensity is expected by early evening.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.
SATURDAY and SUNDAY...High Wind Potential.
MONDAY...No Hazards.
TUESDAY...Very High Fire Weather Potential...High Wind Potential.
WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Strong and gusty northwest winds are expected this weekend behind
a cold front and strong upper level storm system. Freezing
temperatures are expected across parts of northeast Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas both Sunday and Monday mornings.

Strong south winds and warmer temps return early next week, as
will an increase in the fire weather danger.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

$$



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