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000
FXUS65 KTWC 212107
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
206 PM MST Sun Apr 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Dry with seasonable warm temperatures will continue
through the first of half of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Partly to mostly sunny skies this afternoon across
southeast Arizona as a weak disturbance pushing into Sonora is
resulting in some cirroform cloudiness. This isn`t doing much to
keep temperatures lower as high temperatures are about 6 to 10
degrees warmer than normal as broader ridging remains over the area.

The ridge axis will be over our area Monday resulting in the warmest
day of the period with a high around 95 in Tucson. The latest NBM
probabilities for Tucson show a 62 percent chance of hitting 95
degrees.

A gradual cooling trend will commence starting Tuesday under west to
southwest flow aloft. Expect high temperatures to drop a couple of
degrees Tuesday and then again Wednesday with afternoon breezes each
day.

Thereafter, a shortwave trough will move from the eastern pacific
into northern Arizona Thursday. This will drop our temperatures back
down to near normal levels on Thursday with continued breezes. This
will be a dry system for us as any notable moisture remains to our
north.

Our area will be between systems on Friday, then ensembles show
another trough next Saturday. This could be a little bit stronger
and more amplified than the Thursday system. With that said,
currently depicting a slight chance of showers to the north and east
of Tucson Saturday. While notable precipitation this far south is
unlikely, additional cooling and breezy to windy conditions are
increasingly likely.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 23/00z.
SCT to ocnly BKN clouds AOA 20k ft AGL into this evening, will
diminish aft 22/08Z with skies generally SKC for the remainder of
the forecast period. SFC winds SLY/SWLY 6-12 kts with gusts 15-20
kts, diminishing to 10 kts or less aft 22/04Z. SFC winds become
SLY/SWLY 8-16 kts again aft 21/18Z with gusts 25-30 kts. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry with above normal temperatures through the
middle of the week. Minimum relative humidity values in the
afternoon between 8% and 17% each day through Wednesday.
Breezy southeasterly to easterly winds into this evening, mainly in
San Simon Valley in northeast Cochise and southeast Graham County.
Otherwise expect typical diurnal wind trends for other locations
through the first part of next week with typical afternoon
gustiness, especially by Tuesday and Wednesday. Another period of
breezy southwesterly winds can be expected in the later half of the
new week and into the weekend.

&&

.CLIMATE...35 years ago today, the all-time record April high
temperature for Tucson of 104 degrees was tied.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

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