Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI
632
FNUS73 KMQT 102055
FWSMQT
Spot Forecast for Black Spruce...USFS
National Weather Service Marquette MI
455 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024
Forecast is based on ignition time of 1600 EDT on May 10.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...
A low pressure system and associated cold front has spread scattered
showers across the burn area late this afternoon and evening. A few
higher gusts near 15 mph could be possible within any shower moving
across the burn into early evening. Expect moist conditions along
with a few sprinkles to linger into tonight with good RH recovery
expected.
Look for drying on Saturday under building high pressure as skies
clear out by afternoon. Max temps are expected around 60 with min RHs
lowering between 35 and 40 percent. Northwest winds will generally
be in the 10 to 15 mph range.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Scattered
showers.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
LAL.................1.
Temperature.........62 at ignition...Max 64.
RH..................34 percent at ignition...Min 30 percent.
Dewpoint............34.
33-foot winds.......Winds at 10 mph becoming northwest with a few
higher gusts possible in showers.
20-foot winds.......West winds around 9 mph becoming northwest with
a few higher gusts possible in showers.
Mixing height.......8700 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 8300-8700
ft AGL.
Ventilation index...Excellent (955) at ignition. Max...excellent
(1082.0).
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
fire growth at ignition...max 4.
Rainfall amount.....0.03 inches.
Ceiling (kft).......7.9 decreasing to 5.5 late in the afternoon.
TIME (EDT) 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........77 80
Weather cov.....SCH CHC
Weather type....RW RW
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).30 50
LAL.............1 1
Temp............62 61
Dewpoint........34 35
RH..............34 38
33 ft wind dir..W NW
33 ft wind spd..10 10
20 ft wind dir..W NW
20 ft wind spd..9 9
Wind gust.......13 13
Mix hgt (kft)...8.7 8.3
Haines index....4 3
VIndx kt-ft/100.96 108
Ceiling (kft)...7.9 5.5
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Rain showers
likely early in the evening, then a slight
chance of rain showers late in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
LAL.................1.
Temperature.........Min 38.
RH..................Max 97 percent.
Dewpoint............38 increasing to 42 early in the evening, then
decreasing to 38 after 3 am.
33-foot winds.......Northwest winds 6 to 8 mph.
20-foot winds.......Northwest winds 5 to 6 mph.
Mixing height.......6700 ft AGL decreasing to 200-1600 ft AGL.
Ventilation index...Good to excellent (532.0-867.0) decreasing to
poor to fair (39.0-295.0) early in the evening.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
Rainfall amount.....0.04 inches.
Ceiling (kft).......5.9 decreasing to 0.7.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........80 80 80 82 85 87 86 85 84 84 84 84
Weather cov.....LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).60 60 30 30 30 20 20 20 10 10 10 10
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............59 56 50 48 45 43 42 42 42 40 41 40
Dewpoint........37 40 44 43 43 41 41 41 40 40 39 38
RH..............44 55 77 82 90 93 94 96 92 97 94 93
33 ft wind dir..NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW
33 ft wind spd..8 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8
20 ft wind dir..NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW
20 ft wind spd..6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
Wind gust.......8 8 8 8 8 8 10 10 10 10 10 10
Mix hgt (kft)...6.7 4.4 2.5 1.6 1.1 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3
Haines index....3 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3
VIndx kt-ft/100.87 53 30 20 16 15 11 7 5 4 4 5
Ceiling (kft)...5.9 4.5 4.4 3.5 2.9 1.7 1.3 1.2 1.2 0.9 0.9 0.7
.SATURDAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent) then becoming
sunny (15-25 percent). Slight chance of rain
showers early in the morning.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................1.
Temperature.........Max 60.
RH..................Min 38 percent.
Dewpoint............40 increasing to 41 late in the morning, then
decreasing to 33 late in the afternoon.
33-foot winds.......Northwest winds 7 to 13 mph.
20-foot winds.......North winds 6 to 10 mph.
Mixing height.......0-1300 ft AGL increasing to 7400-7800 ft AGL.
Ventilation index...Poor to fair (0.0-263.0) increasing to
excellent (1074.0).
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
large plume dominated fire growth.
Rainfall amount.....0.00 inches.
Ceiling (kft).......0.6 increasing to 23.
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
Sky (%).........80 73 67 52 31 19
Weather cov..... S CHC
Weather type....NONE RNSHWR NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).10 20 10 10 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............39 41 48 53 58 60
Dewpoint........38 39 42 41 38 35
RH..............95 92 81 64 47 39
33 ft wind......NW 7 NW 7 NW 9 N 13 N 13 N 12
20 ft wind......NW 6 NW 6 NW 7 N 10 N 10 N 10
Wind gust.......10 10 14 14 14 14
Mix hgt (ft)....100 300 2600 5400 7400 7800
Haines index....3 3 3 3 4 5
VIndx kt-ft/100.1 6 55 107 133 124
Ceiling (kft)...0.6 0.9 1.8 7.7 13 20
$$
Forecaster...Voss
Requested by...Lisa Gowe
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2413725.0/MQT
.DELDT 05/10/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL lisa.gowe@usda.gov