Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
382 FXUS65 KTWC 010835 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 135 AM MST Wed May 1 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Sunny, warm, and dry this week with breezy afternoons on most days. && .DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery paints a picture of clear skies over Arizona with an approaching trough moving from the Great Basin. The trough will pass to the north today and resulting in the continuation of warm temperatures and a breezier afternoon. As the week progresses, the synoptic pattern will be a westerly zonal flow keeping temperatures in the upper 80s to the lower 90s for the rest of the week. The afternoon heating can bring the typical afternoon breeze in many locations. This trend will continue through until a change of pace in the weather: more stronger breezes and slight dip in temperatures. The ensemble models show a trough moving into the western coast with some differences within the longer range models by the weekend. The GEFS still and continue to lean into a deeper trough solution that could bring a little more cooling to the region. More like knocking off 3 to 10 degrees for Monday`s high temperatures. The other two longer models show the shallower trough solution with some minor variations. Still, the all of the models show that Sunday will be on the stronger end of the breezy conditions across region. && .AVIATION...Valid through 02/12Z. SKC conditions through the valid period. Light SFC winds this morning and then becoming SWLY 10-20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots from 01/16z through 02/04Z. Then returning to light and variable thereafter. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...High temperatures will be 3-8 degrees above normal into the upcoming weekend. 20-foot winds will generally be 15 mph or less most of this week, with afternoon gustiness resulting from surface heating. The strongest winds are expected today, with southwest to west winds of 15-20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph, and again on Sunday. Min RH values in the valleys will generally be in the single digits and 12-20 percent in the mountains. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson