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000
FXUS65 KTWC 110931
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
231 AM MST Thu Apr 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Warm and dry across Southeast Arizona with above
normal readings expected through Saturday. Thursday will be the
warmest day of the period with Tucson likely seeing its first 90
degree temperature of the year. A weak and dry weather system
passing through the region Friday will result in breezy southwest
winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The amplified ridging continues and should reach its
peak for southeastern Arizona this afternoon. Thus, the potential
for Tucson`s first 90 degree day remains on track. This is shown
well in the 850-700 mb thicknesses that have the temperature range
from 89-91 degrees. This is also in line with the NBM 25th and
75th percentiles and the current probability for Tucson reaching
90 degrees is at 50%. Since it hasn`t been this hot since November
4th last year, so remember to drink plenty of water, check in on
vulnerable populations, and avoid outdoor activities during the
hottest part of the day.

The ridge begins to move eastward out of the area on Friday and a
weak shortwave moving through the area driving up the afternoon
winds up just a tad. The fuels and wind remain under any critical
fire weather thresholds, more on that in the fire weather section.

A low pressure system then moves in early next week. Models are
still showing the lack of moisture with this system. Pops continue
to remain low as a result. This system will drop the temperatures
before a ridge begins to build behind it.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 12/12Z.
SKC across Southeast Arizona for the majority of the forecast
period with some cirrus AOA 250 kft MSL. SFC winds winds light
and variable thru 11/18Z then becoming NWLY 5-10 kts with
occasional gusts to 20-25 kts in the afternoon. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Warm and dry across Southeast Arizona with above
normal readings today through Friday. Thursday will be the
warmest of the three days. Minimum relative humidity under 10
percent for the lower valleys today into Friday. Gusty to breezy
winds return Friday into the weekend as a dry system moves through
the region to the north. Localized areas could see brief critical
to near critical fire weather conditions on Friday, but fire
danger and ERCs are still low for this time of year.

&&

.CLIMATE...First 90 degree high date information for Tucson
Historical period (1895-2023): April 8th
Climatological normal period (1991-2020): March 30th
2023 1st date: April 10th

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Public...Tetrault
Aviation...Tetrault
Fire Weather....Tetrault

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