Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 262134
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
234 PM MST Tue Mar 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...A few showers early this evening then clearing skies
with a cool overnight lows with freezing temperatures for the
colder areas of Cochise county. Much warmer temperatures Thursday
into Saturday before another weather system impacts the area late
Sunday into early next week. Cooler temperatures, chances for
showers and mountain snow, and increased winds would likely
accompany this system.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Scattered light showers, a few thunderstorms, have
been occurring today across most of SE AZ under NW flow aloft.
These showers will end this evening as the weather system
responsible for them, currently over western NM, continues to
move east. Skies clear from west to east with overnight lows on
the chilly to cold side for late March. Early growing season
freezing warning has been posted Wednesday morning for the colder
valleys of Cochise county, specifically the Sulphur Springs
Valley.

Warming trend starts tomorrow which will continue into Saturday
before the next Pacific storm impacts the area Sunday into early
next week. Still plenty of details to be ironed out with timing
and amount of valley rain and mountain snow. What is sure is a
return to cooler than normal temperatures and breezy to windy
conditions. Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 28/00Z.
BKN clouds 4k-7k ft AGL with WDLY SCT -SHRA/ISOLD TS thru 27/05z
then clearing skies from west to east. SFC winds WLY 10-15 kts
with ocnl gusts to 22 kts becoming terrain driven less than 10 kts
after 27/04z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Scattered light showers across the eastern half
of southeast Arizona will be ending this evening alongbe today.

Ridging will cross the region through the latter half of the week,
bringing lower elevation highs into the 70s and lower 80s Thursday
through Saturday. Models continue to show an anomalously strong
trough deepening off the California coast by Sunday. While this
trough should move east and impact the southwest CONUS, there
remains fairly large uncertainty in timing and how southeastern
Arizona is impacted. 500mb guidance is in good agreement with the
trough becoming positively tilted during its evolution, which in
turn leads to uncertainty in how far south it will dig. Solutions
with a northern track have QPF generally missing southern Arizona,
though these solutions are for now generally outnumbered by the
wetter solutions. Therefore the main question remains
precipitation onset time with solutions ranging from Sunday
through late Monday, with still some uncertainty in how extensive
the precipitation potential will be.
 with
occasional breezes. Much warmer Thursday into Saturday with a
ridge building overhead. Another storm system is expected to
impact the region late this weekend into the early part of next
week with breezy to windy conditions, colder temperatures and a
good chance of showers Sunday into early next week. Breezy
conditions may arrive ahead of this system as early as Friday.

&&

.CLIMATE...All-time hottest March high temperature for Tucson of
99 degrees occurred on this day in 1988.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 8 AM MST Wednesday for AZZ508-509.

&&

$$

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