Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 270542 AAC
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1142 PM MDT Tue Mar 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 659 PM MDT Tue Mar 26 2024

Added patchy fog and low clouds to the forecast across far
northeast and east central areas late this evening through early
Wednesday morning. A shallow backdoor cold front will increase low
level moisture there. At this time the cool pool behind the front
does not look deep enough to reach the I-25 corridor along the
east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, but the front could
push all the way up to the mountains if the base of an upper level
trough aloft does not cross quickly enough this evening.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 100 PM MDT Tue Mar 26 2024

Cooler and unsettled conditions will be replaced with a warming
and drying trend beginning Wednesday and going through the
weekend. Daytime temperatures will trend up and be above normal
most areas by Friday. Winds will also be on the upswing late in
the week and through the weekend, with windy conditions most
areas by Friday and the strongest winds forecast Sunday. A
Pacific storm will approach from over AZ and begin impacting
western NM late Sunday with showers and cooler temperatures.
Chances for precipitation will increase early next week as the
Pacific storm moves over the area, with cooler temperatures, snow
in the mountains and a mix of rain and snow at the lower
elevations.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 100 PM MDT Tue Mar 26 2024

Broad trough axis continues to swing across the Desert Southwest
amongst ample moisture, bringing scattered to numerous showers to
northern and central NM. The trough will work to exit NM this
evening through tonight, with the best coverage of showers favoring
the southwest mts. Accumulations overnight will be nominal with only
the highest peaks seeing an additional couple inches. Activity will
diminish after midnight as upper level high pressure begins to slide
in from the west. Overnight temperatures will trend below normal
areawide. The shortwave ridge moving over the Desert Southwest
Wednesday will allow for a regime of stout northwest flow aloft.
This will create breezy to locally windy conditions across central
NM, but especially across the central mts and their adjacent
highlands. Rising pressure heights will lend to a gentle warmup,
with most areas seeing high temperatures a few to 7F above today`s
readings. The warming trend will continue into Wednesday night, with
most areas seeing overnight temperatures a few degrees warmer than
tonight under mostly clear skies.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 100 PM MDT Tue Mar 26 2024

A flattening upper level ridge will shift east of the Rockies and
NM Thursday and be replaced by strengthening and backing westerly
flow through Sunday. The result will be the continuation of a
warming and drying trend that will send daytime temperatures above
normal most areas by Friday. The Albuquerque Sunport is forecast
to hit the first 70 degree day of the calendar this year on
Friday, then continue at or above 70 for highs through Sunday.
This is a fairly late day for our first 70 degree day at KABQ,
with March 9th being the average first day in the long period of
record. Surface winds are also forecast to trend up from Thursday
through Sunday. Increasing breezy to windy conditions are forecast
Thu-Sun with the windiest day being Sunday when a Wind Advisory
may be required, especially across eastern NM. Critical fire
weather conditions will be a growing concern from Thu-Sun (see
Fire Weather discussion below for details). In addition, blowing
dust may be a weather hazard on Sunday afternoon, especially
in/near Chaves County.

A Pacific trough/low will approach from over SoCal Sunday and move
over the area Mon/Tue of next week. Moisture advection ahead of
the system will bring increased cloud cover Sunday with some
showers across western NM. Chances for showers and perhaps
isolated thunderstorms will increase from west to east across the
area early next week as the Pacific low moves slowly east across
the area and interacts with a backdoor cold front. Much cooler
temperatures will move in with the Pacific system, with highs
forecast below normal Mon/Tue.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1134 PM MDT Tue Mar 26 2024

A weak and shallow backdoor cold front/wind shift will drop into
northeast and east central NM tonight with low clouds and patchy
fog producing MVFR and IFR conditions that could reach as far
south as KTCC and KCVS. Conditions over eastern NM will gradually
improve Wednesday morning. VFR condtions are forecast areawide
thereafter with brisk northwest winds developing for the central
highlands including Clines Corners and Vaughn during the
afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 100 PM MDT Tue Mar 26 2024

Drier air makes its way into the forecast area Wednesday, allowing
skies to clear and minimum relative humidity to fall around 15 to 20
percent areawide compared to today. Breezy conditions will focus
along the central high terrain and its adjacent highlands in the
afternoon. Widespread elevated and near-critical conditions expand
into eastern New Mexico on Thursday as minimum RH continues to fall
amongst breezy to locally windy southwest winds. Similar conditions
are expected on Friday with near-critical to critical fire weather
conditions possible along the highlands of the central mountains and
eastward. More near-critical conditions are expected on Saturday,
favoring the southwest mountains and their adjacent high and
lowlands. Flow aloft strengthens moving into Sunday bringing the
potential for widespread near-critical to critical fire weather
conditions for much of northern and central New Mexico. Minimum
relative humidity will plummet into the teens and low double digits
alongside strong southwest winds. The upper level disturbance will
bring increasing chances for precipitation Sunday night into Monday,
with the best coverage expected west of the central mountains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  26  53  28  65 /   5   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  17  49  20  58 /  20   0   0   0
Cuba............................  21  47  25  58 /  20   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  20  52  23  64 /  20   0   0   0
El Morro........................  22  45  25  60 /  20   0   0   0
Grants..........................  21  51  23  64 /  30   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  22  47  25  62 /  30   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  28  52  32  65 /  10   0   0   0
Datil...........................  24  46  27  61 /  20   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  20  55  24  64 /  50   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  30  59  35  68 /  20   0   0   0
Chama...........................  14  44  18  51 /  20   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  25  47  29  58 /  10   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  22  47  26  58 /  20   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  22  39  25  50 /  20   5   0   0
Red River.......................  13  36  16  45 /  30   5   0   0
Angel Fire......................  11  36  13  49 /  20   0   0   0
Taos............................  17  44  18  56 /  10   0   0   0
Mora............................  19  43  22  58 /   5   0   0   0
Espanola........................  25  54  26  65 /  10   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  25  47  28  59 /  20   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  24  52  27  63 /  10   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  33  54  36  65 /  20   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  32  57  33  68 /  20   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  30  59  31  70 /  20   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  31  57  33  68 /  10   0   0   0
Belen...........................  29  59  30  71 /  20   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  31  57  31  68 /  10   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  28  59  29  70 /  20   0   0   0
Corrales........................  30  57  31  68 /  10   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  28  59  29  71 /  20   0   0   0
Placitas........................  30  51  32  64 /  10   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  31  56  32  67 /  10   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  34  62  35  72 /  10   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  27  46  31  60 /  20   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  28  49  31  62 /  30   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  26  49  27  63 /  20   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  24  52  22  65 /  20   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  22  48  26  61 /   5   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  26  50  29  62 /  30   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  26  51  29  62 /  20   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  30  55  35  65 /  30   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  27  48  31  60 /  30   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  21  42  22  60 /  30   0   0   0
Raton...........................  20  48  20  64 /  20   0   0   0
Springer........................  22  51  21  67 /  10   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  21  47  24  61 /   5   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  26  50  29  67 /  20   5   0   0
Roy.............................  25  50  26  66 /  10   5   0   0
Conchas.........................  29  58  29  74 /  20   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  31  57  30  72 /  20   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  28  55  29  73 /  20   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  30  59  31  71 /  30   0   0   0
Portales........................  30  61  29  73 /  30   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  30  61  30  73 /  20   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  37  68  35  77 /  10   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  33  59  33  73 /  10   0   0   0
Elk.............................  31  56  32  69 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...33


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