Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 290158 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
858 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- 20-35% chance for rain and/or freezing rain tonight and Friday. Up
  to a few hundredths of ice accumulation will be possible late
  tonight.

- Precipitation chances increase this weekend, perhaps in two
  waves, late Saturday/Saturday night, then again late Sunday
  through Monday. Accumulating snowfall will be possible, with a
  less than 50 percent chance of seeing 2 inches or more by Monday
  evening. The probability is best west of the Missouri River.

- Warming temperatures moving in by mid-week next week, with 40s,
  50s, and perhaps even 60s (central SD on Wed) moving into the
  region.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 837 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Starting to see returns filling in across western/northwestern
South Dakota in the better mid-level WAA-forcing and mid/upper
level jet-lifted UVV. Based on how warm it is from the surface to
850hpa, if/when some of these returns work over portions of north
central South Dakota, it should be plain rain, and it should be
fairly light stuff (qpf ~0.05 or less). That batch of
precipitation should be working up into North Dakota by 05Z.
Beyond 05Z, any lingering returns are expected to be rather light
(sprinkles/freezing sprinkles?) and limited in areal coverage as
the better forcing/lift is supposed to recenter/re-focus further
north and east over North Dakota late in the night and into Friday
morning.

UPDATE Issued at 623 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 00Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 224 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Southeast winds will increase this evening ahead as low pressure
moves off the Rockies and squeezes up against sfc high pressure over
Minnesota. Winds will gust at 30 to 40 mph with highest gusts over
the Coteau. As the low progresses east tonight, shortwave energy
riding over the upper ridge and a mid level low at H7 and H85 will
combine to generate some light rain or freezing rain. The waa on the
north side of the sfc low will favor liquid precip aloft with H85
temps all above 0C. Lows in the 20s across north central SD will see
any liquid precip freeze upon arrival. NBM continues to be on the
high end of QPF/pop guidance. Blended in ConsShort, ConsAll, and
HREF to back down the QPF and hold any icing accumulations to areas
west of the James Valley. Temperatures are expected to quickly rise
above freezing on Friday with highs in the upper 30s to near 50
degrees (coldest northeast, warmest south central). The bulk of any
precip is still expected to remain across North Dakota, though the
shortwave and trailing upper trough may focus east of I-29 Friday
afternoon. Temperatures will be warm enough at that time to support
all rain in the forecast.

Caa pushes in from the north in the upper trough Friday night, so
expect temperatures to dip into the teens and 20s again.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 224 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

The long term begins on Saturday with an elongated surface high
pressure system over the region, with a surface low pressure
approaching from the west. The high pressure retreats to the north
as the surface low crosses the plains Saturday night into Sunday
morning. QPF amounts associated with the first system could be as
little as a few hundredths of an inch, to a tenth of an inch or
more. It`s difficult to distinguish potential QPF amounts because a
secondary, stronger storm system will progress eastward across the
area Sunday afternoon through Monday morning. While deterministic
models do indicate a 3 to 6 hour break between systems, they
disagree on timing. The differences with model data will cause a
broad brush approach with pops on Sunday. The secondary storm system
appears to push eastward across the area, mainly Sunday night
through Monday. Based on deterministic models, there is a slight
shift southward with the heaviest pcpn now more likely (60-80%)
occurring in southern SD and northern Nebraska. However, both the
grand ensemble and NBM substantially increased QPF amounts, with at
least a 40 percent chance for two tenth of an inch, mainly south of
Highway 212 in central South Dakota. There is even a low, 20 percent
or less, QPF amounts exceeding a half inch in central SD. The GFS,
one of the stronger model solutions, suggests snow ratios under 10:1
with temps in the low to mid 30s for KPIR. The storm system should
depart the CWA on Monday, with dry conditions for the remainder of
the period. Warmer temperatures should quickly move into the region
with highs in the 40s and 50s on Tuesday. Highs in the 50s and 60s
are expected Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 623 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions this evening will deteriorate into MVFR/IFR
conditions (cigs) as a low pressure system affects the region
overnight into Friday. Sub-VFR cigs should be materializing at
KMBG by 09Z, spreading over into KPIR/KABR after 12Z and should be
to KATY by 18Z Friday. There is the slimmest of chances for some
light rain or light freezing rain at KMBG between 04Z and 08Z and
at KABR after 12Z Friday. Southeast winds will shift to the
northwest behind the low on Friday.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Dorn
SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...Dorn


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