Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
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969 FXUS63 KABR 151740 AAC AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 1240 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms will occur today along a frontal boundary tracking across the region. Areas east of the James River Valley will see the highest amounts of rainfall, in excess of one half inch in some locations. - Above average temperatures can be expected on Friday with highs in the in 80s. Temps in the low 90s could be possible. - A frontal boundary crossing the area late Friday afternoon and through the overnight hours will produce a 20 to 60 percent chance for thunderstorms. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1232 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024 Aviation discussion updated below for the 18Z TAFs. UPDATE Issued at 1024 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024 Mid-level shortwave trough and surface boundary are over the region this morning, continuing to provide areas of rainfall. As the day progresses, this system slowly pushes east and should see an end to the rainfall from west to east into the evening hours. Made some minor adjustments to PoPs/sky to match recent radar and satellite trends. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON/... Issued at 313 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024 An upper level shortwave trough will track across the Northern Plains today and this evening, exiting to the east late tonight. Will see a brief period of northwest flow overnight before another trough tracks across the area on Thursday. At the surface, a frontal boundary currently over the central CWA will continue to track eastward this morning before it stalls out over the far eastern CWA this afternoon. This front will be the focus for precipitation, with mainly rain showers expected. Cannot rule out a few thunderstorms as there will be some shear along the front, but instability will be minimal, so no severe weather is expected. With the front stalling out, will see a more prolonged period of rain, mainly east of the James River Valley. Some locations may see in excess of one half inch of rainfall today. The front exits to the east this evening, with mainly dry conditions expected tonight as weak high pressure moves in. The high will get pushed east on Thursday as another low pressure system approaches from the northwest. A few of the models are hinting at some light rain making it to north central South Dakota Thursday afternoon, but most of the CAMs are not showing this, so will keep the entire area dry on Thursday. High temperatures today will be in the 60s. Low temperatures tonight will be in the mid to upper 40s. Highs on Thursday will be in the 70s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 313 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024 The long term portion of the forecast begins on Thursday night with perhaps a weak storm system passing across North Dakota with a low, under 20 percent chance for pcpn across this CWA. Models have trended drier Thursday night through most of Friday, with most of the CWA seeing dry conditions. On Friday, an area of low pressure over the western Dakotas will bring much above average temperatures into the CWA, with 925 mb temps reaching the mid 20C. These temps are above the 90th percentile, and a few degrees near daily max 925 mb temp. 850 mb temps are also expected to reach the 90th percentile. Analogs support highs reaching the 80s, to perhaps the low 90s on Friday. These warm temperatures will not last as the low pressure system and associated cold front will cross the CWA Friday evening and overnight, bringing a 30 to 60 percent chance for showers and thunderstorms. Excellent deep layer shear, along with modest instability, some storms Friday evening could become strong to severe. The severe potential could be limited due a capping inversion along and ahead of the frontal boundary, with convection possibly remaining post-frontal. The front pushes east into MN by Saturday morning with the trough over the region, bringing cooler temperatures on Saturday. The weather pattern remains active Sunday into early next week with periods of showers and thunderstorms possible. Confidence is low with timing and rainfall potential, thus pops are more of a broad brush approach. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1232 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG MVFR/IFR CIGs will continue across the region this afternoon, along with areas of -RA/RA and -SHRA/SHRA. Cannot rule out a brief TSRA near the KATY terminal through about 20Z this afternoon. CIGs are forecast to trend VFR from west to east across the region through the TAF period. VSBY may be reduced to MVFR at times in areas of heavier precipitation and BR. Also, towards sunrise, there is at least low potential for FG/BR across the region, but confidence is low at this time and will take a closer look in upcoming TAF issuances. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...TMT SHORT TERM...Parkin LONG TERM...SD AVIATION...TMT