682
FXUS63 KABR 041108 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
608 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions expected today and Sunday. Southeast to south winds
  begin to increase Sunday afternoon ahead of a Rocky Mountains low.

- A much larger system looks to affect the region on Monday, with
  widespread moderate rainfall. The threat for severe weather still
  appears low at this time (higher across NE/KS/OK), but we will
  continue to monitor trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 412 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

High pressure builds into the region this morning bringing dry
conditions. However, an upper trough is slow to depart so max Ts are
expected to remain below normal by 5 to 10 degrees. Weak upper
ridging builds in tonight. High pressure exits to the east on Sunday
leaving a tightening pressure gradient between the high and a Rocky
Mountains low. Winds increase out of the southeast to south Sunday
afternoon with gusts across central SD up to 50 mph. Will likely
need to hoist a wind advisory for some locations in the forecast
area as we get closer to the onset. The upper ridge and good mixing
will push temperatures up around 70 degrees on Sunday, as well.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 419 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Sunday night we continue to see an upper level ridge over the area.
This will continue into Monday morning. However, Monday afternoon an
upper level low starts to move into the region. This will stay in
place through the day Saturday. This will bring widespread chances
of rain to the region through the day Thursday.

Monday looks to have the highest rain totals for the long term,
along with a chance for some storms. Consistent with what we saw
yesterday, NAEFS is still showing PWAT values in the 97.5
percentile, starting west river and then spreading east across the
rest of northeast SD through the day. For QPF, the NBM is still
showing 50 to 65 percent probabilities for more than a half an inch
in 24 hours ending Tuesday morning. Probabilities of more than an
inch in 24 hours are still 30 percent or less. Although rain totals
may exceed expectations under storms. While models aren`t showing a
whole lot of CAPE (100-400 J/kg across the James valley, less
elsewhere), Bulk shear values are between 35 and 50 kts across the
region. This will sway the threat away from the hail side of things
and more towards a wind threat, especially since we are already
expecting stronger wind gusts. The Canadian model tries to bring
back a chance for some storms on Wednesday, but other models
disagree at the moment. PoPs start to decrease across the area
Thursday evening.

Speaking of winds, Sunday night into Tuesday morning is expected to
be quite windy with gusts of over 40 mph possible. Sunday night,
winds are fueled by a LLJ and Monday night, winds look to be
enhanced by strong CAA coming in from the west. Winds should start
to die down Tuesday during the day. Temperatures in the long term
still look to be right around average to 10 degrees below average.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 608 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected through tonight.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...Wise