571
FXAK67 PAJK 281249
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
449 AM AKDT Sun Apr 28 2024

.SHORT TERM...Chances of precipitation linger through the day as
the impacts of a low located in the eastern Gulf of AK continue to
be felt. Satellite and radar imagery depict the associated frontal
bands currently traversing the panhandle as of the time of
writing. The greatest chances for precip will be in the N half of
the panhandle, as the southern half of the area enjoys something
of a respite Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening as what
little dynamic support there is consolidates further north.
Chances for precip will somewhat increase across the S panhandle
late Sunday night as said dynamics shift southward along with the
departing low but do not expect any significant precip totals
before the low departs entirely. Drier weather will largely
prevail on Monday. Some fog is possible across parts of the area
Sunday night into Monday morning, especially across the S half of
the panhandle.

Only minimal changes were made to the forecast. Made some
adjustments to temperatures to reflect the impact of some breaks
in the cloud deck through the day on Sunday, along with some
minor changes to the wind grids. Overall, the forecast remains
largely on track.

.LONG TERM.../ Monday to Thursday night / The surface low in the
southeast gulf of Alaska will move south-southeast towards the
Pacific Northwest coastal area by Late Monday night, leaving a
weak ridge in place over the gulf and into the panhandle as and
area of lower pressure persist over the Canadian interior from the
Yukon Territory to Central British Columbia and this situation
holding through Tuesday. Another short wave running along the
southern side of the gulf and will spin up a weak low ( about 1010
mb at present solutions ) and this may spread some rain to the
southern portion of the panhandle, however consistency between
model solutions have forecast trending towards ensemble solutions
and thus a middle of the road forecast at present. Thus mid week
is looking to be dry for the panhandle.

&&

.AVIATION...A low located over the eastern gulf will continue to
influence the flying weather across SE AK for the first half of
the TAF period. Most places are reporting VFR conditions but some
are reporting MVFR conditions. With the low being close to the
coast, some LLWS is possible along the outer coast during the day.
The likelihood of LLWS is expected to go down throughout the day
as the low moves away from the coast. Otherwise, showers are
expected to continue during the start of the TAF period before
decreasing. Some of these showers could bring lowered VIS and CIGs
during heavier periods of precipitation.

&&

.MARINE...A gale force low will drift southward through the day on
Sunday. While gales will be short lived, mostly along the NE
quadrant of the low, widespread 30-35 knot winds will continue
through the afternoon and evening for the gulf waters.

A surge of southerly winds will race up the southern panhandle
through Sunday morning before weakening as they approach the icy
Strait corridor. In their wake, the primary flow transitions back
to Northerlies. Sunday night will see winds on a diminishing
trend, and by Monday, expect most of the inner channels to be
around 5 - 10 kt, barring sea breeze impacts in the usual areas,
with 15 kt winds or higher largely restricted to the outer coastal
waters.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ661-662.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ641>644-663-664-671.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GFS
LONG TERM....Bezenek
AVIATION...SF
Marine...AP/GFS

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