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000
FXAK67 PAJK 172246
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
246 PM AKDT Wed Apr 17 2024

.SHORT TERM...Through Thursday night...Ridge of high pressure over
the region will maintain dry weather with mostly sunny skies
through the period. Another round of optimal radiational cooling
will allow temps to drop again overnight with lows similar to Wed
morning with guidance continuing with slightly warmer max temps
Thu. Minimal changes to inherited forecast to adjust toward
persistence.

.LONG TERM.../Friday through Wednesday/...The end of the week
brings about an end to the dry and warm weather for SE AK as the
gulf high pressure ridge shifts east. A trough from 500 mb low
over the Western AK Gulf extends over the SE Gulf then rotates
over the Panhandle from S to N Saturday night into Sunday. At the
surface the stalled front that was over the Western Gulf moves
east then pushes over the Panhandle. Cloud cover increases and
temps return to seasonable normals with a narrower diurnal range.
The front will shear apart as it loses upper level support so not
expecting much in the way of rainfall amounts. Operational models
have fair amount of spread on if this front will produce any
precip but ensembles have been consistent keeping in some light
precip. As the front rides over the ridge another short break in
precip occurs Monday as another low moves in from the west.
Northerly winds diminish as pressure gradient weakens with a
directional shift occurring through Saturday into Sunday. Active
weather continues into next week. More spread in operational model
solutions due to the break down of the ridge but ensembles keep a
broad low in place with precip for most of the time, so overall
lower confidence in forecast details next week

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will persist across the panhandle with clear skies
and little wind aside from localized afternoon sea breezes
through the TAF period.


&&

.MARINE...High pressure over the region will stall an advancing
front over the gulf. Strong to near gale southeasterly winds will
persist over the gulf through the week before high pressure moves
E of the region. Over the inner channels, generally light to
gentle winds prevail with moderate to fresh NE to E outflow winds
out of Taku Inlet, back side of Douglas Island and S Lynn through
Cross Sound.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-053-642>644-651-652-661>664-671-
     672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM....PRB
AVIATION...NM
MARINE...BC

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