Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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009 FXUS64 KAMA 090526 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1226 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM ... (This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 159 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 Surface winds have been light and variable around the combined Panhandles this morning with a stalled surface boundary (cold front) over the area. This boundary is to retreat to the northeast late this afternoon with westerly winds picking up to potentially 20 mph gusting 30 mph for the southwest TX Panhandle for a few hours this evening. The front in the north is progged to push south late tonight with northerly winds overtaking the area. The main push of CAA advection behind this front is expected tomorrow, but also the upsloping winds will help keep temperatures on the cooler side tomorrow with highs in the upper 60s across the northwestern combined Panhandles and 70s over the rest of the combined Panhandles. Tomorrow afternoon surface winds are progged to become more easterly with the southern half of the Texas Panhandle seeing winds pick up to around 20 mph. Besides some breezy winds and temperatures turning cooler tomorrow, overall the weather is expected to be benign in the short term. 36 && .LONG TERM ... (Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 159 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 A large upper level low will be found over the Great Basin on Friday. The Panhandles will be in a zonal to somewhat southwest flow aloft ahead of this low. As the low moves across the 4-corners region, the flow aloft will become increasingly southwest through the weekend. Then the upper level low is expected to track east across southeast Colorado and southwest Kansas Sunday night into Monday. The models are in fairly good agreement on the track of the upper low, but they disagree on the the strength and speed of the low. Showers and thunderstorms may start as early as Friday evening in the west and showers and storms may linger as late as early Tuesday morning in the east. Another system in the northwest flow aloft may bring some showers and storms to the area Tuesday and Tuesday night. As the event gets closer, the time window for rain will likely shrink as models come into better agreement with the speed of the upper level low. Latest ensemble forecasts suggest that the Panhandles have a 50 to 60 percent probability of seeing at least 0.5" of rain from Friday through Monday night. There could be a severe storm or two during this forecast, but it does not look like a favorable set up for days and days of severe weather in the Panhandles. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1218 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024 VFR conditions will likely persist with this TAF issuance. East winds are forecast through most of the next 24 hours. Gusts during the daytime hours could be up to 20 to 25 kts. The gusts should drop off after 00z at the sites. High clouds are forecast to move over the terminals. There is a low chance (10-15 percent) of a shower or storm impacting KDHT/KGUY late in this TAF period, confidence is not high enough to include at this time. Muscha && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 73 47 72 50 / 10 0 0 10 Beaver OK 76 44 76 48 / 10 0 0 0 Boise City OK 68 43 68 46 / 10 10 10 10 Borger TX 77 49 77 51 / 10 0 0 10 Boys Ranch TX 75 47 74 51 / 10 10 0 10 Canyon TX 73 47 72 49 / 10 10 0 10 Clarendon TX 74 50 74 52 / 10 0 0 0 Dalhart TX 70 43 70 45 / 10 10 0 10 Guymon OK 72 44 73 47 / 10 0 0 10 Hereford TX 75 47 73 49 / 10 10 0 10 Lipscomb TX 76 48 77 51 / 10 0 0 0 Pampa TX 74 47 74 51 / 10 0 0 0 Shamrock TX 76 50 76 52 / 10 0 0 0 Wellington TX 77 51 76 52 / 10 0 0 0 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...36 LONG TERM....15 AVIATION...05