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000
FXUS63 KAPX 221740
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
140 PM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very high fire danger today.

- Showers tonight and Tuesday. Isolated thunderstorm chances
  Tuesday.

- Colder Tue night and Wednesday, then moderating temps.

- Active weather likely this upcoming weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Pattern/synopsis: A ridge of high pressure extends from the s
central states to lower MI. To the west of the ridge, return
flow is increasing in the central plains and upper MS Valley.
Aloft, 500mb ridging tries to build in today, but it gets
suppressed even before multiple shortwaves move east into the
region late tonight.

Forecast: Will be keeping an eye on fire wx parameters today.
Warm advection is increasing behind the departing ridge, but
moist advection down low is not realized until tonight. No
substantial increasing cloud trend will be seen until this
evening. So we will be much warmer than yesterday, with highs
mostly in the 60s (a bit cooler near Lake MI). Even with surface
dew points coming up a smidge (using NBM10Pct as dew point
guidance), MinRH values will crater close to 20 percent this
afternoon. Southwest wind gusts of 25 mph to 30 mph in
combination with very low fuel moisture led to the issuance of
a red flag warning this morning which is in effect through
early this evening.

Tonight, various pieces of energy will move quickly eastward
into the central/northern lakes. The most prominent one moves
east over upper MI overnight. As the sw low-level jet increases
to some 50kt or even a smidge stronger, moisture inflow will
also increase. The inbound airmass is not terribly moisture-
rich, but there is enough forcing and abundant lift to take
advantage of the moisture that we do have. A band of convection
is expected to develop in the upper MS Valley later today. This
will outrun the (already limited) instability upstream, and will
not have a thunder mention for tonight. But numerous to
widespread showers will sweep w to e across the area tonight.
Initial precip chances arrive in western areas late evening, but
the highest pops will be overnight. QPF will range from 0.10 to
0.30" in most places. Min temps in the 40s, with continued
breezy sw winds (though a strengthening inversion will keep
winds from getting out of hand).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Upper trough moves southeast out of the Northern Plains early
Tuesday. Glob of vorticity associated with this trough moves through
northern Michigan (whilst the main lobe lags behind), resulting in a
band of showers moving through the region. This activity clears,
then main trough axis and cold pool aloft move over during the
afternoon hours resulting in the chance for isolated low topped
convection. Sfc winds shift from west to north as a frontal boundary
and cooler airmass ooze into northern Michigan Tuesday night into
Wednesday behind the trough axis. Heights rise later in the week
resulting in quiet and mild weather. That being said, the potential
exists for more active weather this upcoming weekend as an upper low
& low pressure system advects northward from the Plains to the Upper
Midwest.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Piece of energy/first portion of an upper trough will impinge on
northern Michigan Tuesday morning with scattered rain showers. This
energy and associated batch of precip will move east, likely
allowing for a brief break in the action mid morning/midday. As the
trough axis, associated lift, and cooler temperatures aloft slide
across the region during the afternoon hours, mid level lapse rates
will steepen fostering minor CAPE amounts. Progged soundings show a
typical low topped convective look with low ELs, skinny CAPE, but
steep lapse rates. Thus, there will be at least the potential for
isolated convective showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon
hours, some of which may produce gusty winds. Would not be surprised
to see some small hail/icy concretion due to the low FZL/WBFZL as
well, given a few modest updrafts develop. Not a huge deal/impact,
but worth monitoring.

Behind the aforementioned trough axis, winds shift from the west to
the north ushering in a colder airmass Tuesday evening/night.
Temperatures will drop into the low to mid 20s late Tuesday night
into Wednesday morning. Expect breezy conditions during this time
with gusts of 15 to 25 mph on average. Below average temperatures
expected during the day on Wednesday with very dry conditions
(dewpoints in the 10s).

A pattern worth keeping an eye on may evolve this upcoming weekend
as an upper low and attendant low pressure system advect northward
from the Central Plains to the Upper Midwest. Showers appear likely,
with the potential for some thunderstorms. ENS guidance illustrates
this quite well, with modest probabilities (~20-50%) for energy to
fuel thunderstorm development (>=500j/kg of CAPE) Saturday
afternoon. Still too far out in advance to say anymore than that but
mild and active weather looks to return this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...

Winds are expected to be gusty through the taf period,
especially this afternoon. Clouds will increase and thicken,
this evening into tonight. A band of showers will cross the
area from w to e tonight, with brief vsby restrictions possible.
Additional showers are possible toward or just after the end of
the taf period as a cold front approaches Tuesday. A
thunderstorm can not be ruled out Tuesday afternoon. Cigs are
largely expected to be low end VFR but a few MVFR cigs are
possible late tonight into Tuesday morning.

LLWS develops late tonight.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for MIZ016>018-
     020>036-041-042-098-099.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LHZ345-
     346.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for LMZ323-341-
     342-344>346.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LSZ322.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...JLD
AVIATION...AJS