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000
FXUS63 KAPX 241723
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
123 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quiet weather today, near record cold temperatures possible
  tonight.

- Temperatures turn warmer Friday into the weekend.

- Active weather this weekend with a chance for thunderstorms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Pattern Synopsis:

Troughing draped across the Great Lakes will continue to quickly
slide southeast of the region today as ridging works across the
central CONUS. Subsidence provided aloft will expansive surface high
pressure from southern Canada down into the Great Lakes and
northeast CONUS today into Thursday.

Forecast Details:

Light flurries/mist is expected to continue over the next few hours
before ending by mid-morning as aforementioned high pressure builds
in. Otherwise, precip-free weather and sunny/clear skies are
expected through tonight. Relief from recent gusty winds will arrive
today as winds look diminish this afternoon into tonight as high
pressure gets centered overhead. Despite sunny skies, cool
temperatures are in store for today as most places stay in the 40s --
and even upper 30s near the lakeshores for daytime highs. Calm winds
and clear skies will spell a cold night ahead with lows dipping well
into the upper teens and 20s across northern Michigan -- potentially
challenging or breaking daily record low temperatures for some
sites. Readings in the low to mid teens cannot be ruled out across
the typical coldest low-lying interior areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Cool northwest flow aloft on Wednesday behind a departing trough
axis with below average daytime temperatures. Rapid moderation
expected thereafter for the end of the week as ridging aloft builds
overhead in response to a deep upper low in the Central Plains.
Upper low and attendant sfc cyclone then move northeast into the
Upper Midwest resulting in warm, moist advection across northern
Michigan. Consequently, rain showers, and thunderstorms, are likely
this weekend.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

System departs to the east Wednesday with cooler, below average
temperatures expected (especially during the morning hours when wind
chills will be in the 10s and 20s). Atmosphere will quickly rebound,
however, as heights rise and ridging builds into the area late week.
Temperatures will rise into the 50s and 60s once more during this
time. Warm temperatures will remain through the weekend due to
breezy southerly sfc winds and continued above normal height
anomalies aloft.

A series of potent, compact upper lows will advect from the C Plains
to the Upper Midwest Friday into this weekend. Consequently, warm,
moist advection is anticipated with a mix of showers and
thunderstorms possible Friday night through the weekend (in addition
to breezy winds). Current guidance suggests the best period for
thunderstorm activity will be Saturday as dewpoints surge into the
50s and perhaps low 60s fostering instability values ~500-1000j/kg
(GFS/CMC ENS guidance shows 50%+ chance for 500j/kg). As the upper
level features move to the west of the region, robust southwest flow
overspreads northern Michgian. Progged GFS/CMC soundings are
quite impressive through the lower to middle troposphere with
40-50kts around 850 mb and vicinity. It does appear there will
be showers earlier in the day on Saturday and so the degree of
afternoon instability will potentially be in question (which is
usually an issue for northern Michigan) but the potential for
robust thunderstorms is at least hinted at given the current
progged pattern. As a reference, CSU-MLP (Colorado State
University Machine Learning Probabilities) do(es) suggest the
potential for severe weather across northern Michigan on
Saturday with a 5-15% probability (albeit this run was from
Sunday evening, latest data is blank for some reason). That
being said, we`ll take our time and monitor this in the coming
days, the finer details will certainly change.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...

High pressure continues to slip in. Little to no clouds expected
through the next 24hrs with very dry air mass in place. Winds drop
off tonight, with most areas going light and variable. Have
explicitly included offshore (easterly) flow in TAF for KMBL
overnight given greatest confidence there; could also be possible at
APN and TVC but less certainty in direction. Winds become more
southerly after sunrise Thursday morning through the rest of the
day...though still not expecting much in the way of cloud cover till
well beyond this TAF period.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for
     LHZ345>349.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJC
LONG TERM...JLD
AVIATION...FEF