Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 171824
FWFAPX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
224 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

...Showery and Cool...

.DISCUSSION...Low pressure aloft is expected to lead to showery and
cool conditions through Saturday morning and again Monday night
and Tuesday. Precipitation amounts will likely be light, however. In
addition, winds are expected to be gusty at times.


MIZ016-017-021>023-099-180815-
Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency
Counties-
224 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Rain showers and
                    slight chance of thunderstorms until 2400, then
                    slight chance of rain showers.
Min Temperature.....39-44.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
   24 HR Trend......12 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 10 mph shifting to the
                    west after midnight. Gusts up to 30 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (58).
Mixing Height.......600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 12 mph shifting to the west around
                    18 mph after midnight.

.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers after 1200.
Max Temperature.....54-59...except 43-48 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree cooler...except 4 degrees warmer near
                    the coast.
Min Humidity........52-57 percent.
   24 HR Trend......17 percent drier...except unchanged along the
                    coast.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 10 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (401).
Mixing Height.......2300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 15 to 18 mph.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers.
Min Temperature.....37-42.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree cooler.
Max Humidity........90-95 percent.
   24 HR Trend......8 percent drier...except 3 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (36).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West around 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.05 in .

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers until 1200.
Max Temperature.....48-53...except 40-45 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........36-41 percent.
   24 HR Trend......17 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds 10 to 15 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 28 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (2482).
Mixing Height.......7200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West around 15 mph increasing to around 33 mph
                    in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in .


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-180815-
Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac
Counties...including Eastern Huron NF-
224 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers and slight chance of thunderstorms
                    until 2400.
Min Temperature.....42-47.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........91-96 percent...except 81-86 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......12 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 10 mph shifting to the
                    southwest after midnight. Gusts up to 30 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (56).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 12 mph shifting to the west around
                    15 mph after midnight.

.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers after 1200.
Max Temperature.....57-62...except 44-49 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........51-56 percent.
   24 HR Trend......21 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 10 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (466).
Mixing Height.......2700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 15 to 18 mph.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers.
Min Temperature.....40-45.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
Max Humidity........91-96 percent.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (30).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West around 6 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.02- 0.13 in.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers until 1200.
Max Temperature.....51-56...except 43-48 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........33-38 percent.
   24 HR Trend......18 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds 10 to 15 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 28 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (2575).
Mixing Height.......8000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West around 15 mph increasing to around 30 mph
                    in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.03 in .


$$

MIZ020-025>027-180815-
Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska
Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL-
224 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms until 2400. Chance of rain
                    showers.
Min Temperature.....39-44.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
Max Humidity........92-97 percent.
   24 HR Trend......20 percent wetter...except 7 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (126).
Mixing Height.......800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 15 to 18 mph.

.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers after 1200.
Max Temperature.....53-58...except 41-46 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees cooler...except 9 degrees cooler near
                    the coast.
Min Humidity........53-58 percent.
   24 HR Trend......13 percent drier...except 8 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (357).
Mixing Height.......2300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 12 to 18 mph.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers.
Min Temperature.....37-42.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........88-93 percent...except 78-83 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (71).
Mixing Height.......700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.05 in .

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent).
Max Temperature.....47-52...except 39-44 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........39-44 percent.
   24 HR Trend......13 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds 10 to 15 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 28 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (2391).
Mixing Height.......7100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West around 18 mph increasing to around 33 mph
                    in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ031>033-180815-
Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the
northern quarter of Manistee NF-
224 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers and slight chance of thunderstorms
                    until 2400, then slight chance of rain showers.
Min Temperature.....38-43.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged...except 5 degrees cooler near the
                    coast.
Max Humidity........92-97 percent.
   24 HR Trend......17 percent wetter...except 4 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Fair (187).
Mixing Height.......1100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West around 18 mph.

.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers after 1200.
Max Temperature.....54-59...except around 51 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........53-58 percent.
   24 HR Trend......19 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 10 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (359).
Mixing Height.......2500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 12 to 18 mph.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers.
Min Temperature.....36-41.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........90-95 percent.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (61).
Mixing Height.......800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.07 in .

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent).
Max Temperature.....47-52.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........37-42 percent.
   24 HR Trend......15 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds 10 to 15 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 28 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (2560).
Mixing Height.......7400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West around 21 mph increasing to around 33 mph
                    in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-180815-
Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin
Counties...including Western Huron NF-
224 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers and slight chance of thunderstorms
                    until 2400.
Min Temperature.....42-47.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........89-94 percent.
   24 HR Trend......12 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 10 mph .
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (79).
Mixing Height.......700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 12 to 18 mph.

.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers after 1200.
Max Temperature.....56-61.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........51-56 percent.
   24 HR Trend......22 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 10 mph .
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (445).
Mixing Height.......2700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 15 to 18 mph.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers.
Min Temperature.....40-45.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........90-95 percent.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (39).
Mixing Height.......700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.04- 0.14 in.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers until 1200.
Max Temperature.....50-55.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........33-38 percent.
   24 HR Trend......17 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds 10 to 15 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 28 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (2671).
Mixing Height.......7900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West around 18 mph increasing to around 30 mph
                    in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.02 in .


$$

.EXTENDED...

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE
MID 40S. WEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID
50S. WEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER
30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.

$$

AJS
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