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000
AXNT20 KNHC 222104
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Apr 23 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western Atlantic gale warning: A cold front extends from 31N74W
to central Florida near 27N80W. Fresh to strong winds prevail W of
the front. Winds will briefly increase to gale force later this
afternoon through this evening over the waters N of 29N within 120
nm W of the front. Seas will build to near 14 ft during the
period of gale force winds.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea near 10N14W
and extends southwestward to 04N19W. The ITCZ extends from 04N19W
to 01S41W to 00N47W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
03S to 05N between 36W and 47W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from SW Florida to 25N85W to near Veracruz,
Mexico. Moderate to fresh to N-NE winds prevail behind the front,
reaching strong speeds over the far SW Gulf. Gentle to moderate
winds are found E of the front. W of the front, seas are in the
6-8 ft range. E of the front, seas of 1-4 ft prevail.

For the forecast, the cold front will push SE of the basin by
this evening with conditions gradually improving. High pressure
will dominate in the wake of the front through mid- week. Winds
will increase by the end of the week as the pressure gradient
tightens, which will also build seas. Fresh to strong winds will
pulse near the Yucatan Peninsula in the evenings.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak pressure gradient prevails over the area supporting
moderate to locally fresh winds over the central and eastern
Caribbean, with light to gentle winds over the western Caribbean.
Seas are in the 2-4 ft range over the central and eastern
Caribbean, and 1-3 ft over the western Caribbean.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh trades are expected
across the central and eastern Caribbean, locally strong near the
N coast of Colombia and near the Gulf of Venezuela midweek. Mainly
gentle to moderate trades will prevail elsewhere, pulsing to
moderate to fresh from the Lee of Cuba to the Windward Passage,
and offshore central Honduras at times. A decaying cold front may
reach into the Caribbean N of 19N tonight, possibly bringing a
brief period of active weather. Slight to moderate seas will
prevail across the basin.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special features section for information on gale
conditions expected across the NW waters.

A cold front extends from 31N74W to central Florida near 27N80W.
A line of showers and thunderstorms is observed ahead of the
frontal boundary. Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 6-9 ft are
found W of the front. Fresh to strong winds are also observed N of
28N within 90 nm east of the front. A weak ridge extends SW from
high pressure centered near 34N48W to the southern Bahamas. Light
to gentle winds, and seas of 3-4 ft, are along the ridge axis.
Farther east, a cold front extends from a complex low pressure
area, with one center located near 32N32W and a second low center
near 30N29W, SW to near 19N40W. Fresh to strong winds associated
to this area of low pressure is found N of 29N between 27W and
39W, where seas are in the 8-12 ft range. Elsewhere, winds are
generally in the gentle to moderate range with seas in the 4-6 ft
range.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front off Florida will
reach from 31N73W to near Miami, Florida this evening, from just E
of Bermuda to the SE Bahamas Tue evening, then stalling and
dissipating to a trough from near 31N59W to the Turks and Caicos
Islands by Wed evening. Fresh to strong winds and building seas
are occurring ahead and behind the front, mainly N of 27N,
increasing to gale speeds N of 29N late this afternoon and
spreading eastward through tonight. Winds will diminish below gale
late tonight. Seas will build to 14 ft with the strongest winds.
The remnant trough is forecast to linger through the remainder of
the week with mainly tranquil conditions for the end of the week.

$$
AL