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000
FXUS61 KBGM 231721
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
121 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry again today with clouds moving in through the afternoon.
Rain showers move in tonight ahead of a cold front coming
through Wednesday morning. Seasonably cold weather expected
Wednesday afternoon and overnight before warmer and drier
weather returns for the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
1 PM Update...
Made some minor upticks to temperatures and wind gusts for this
afternoon. Have been seeing several gusts around 35 mph across
CNY, and a little lighter in NEPA. Peak so far has been 38 mph
(33 knots) at SYR.

Temperatures are also running warmer than expected by about 2-3
degrees, and SYR and ELM may reach the 70-degree mark.


635 AM Update...

Updated temperatures a bit but otherwise no changes made.

310 AM Update...

With only a few high clouds moving through early this morning
it is another cold night with good radiational cooling. valleys
have cooled faster than the ridges so used our fog tool to lower
temperatures in the valleys. Upper level ridging is building in
as well with southerly flow developing in the lower levels so
despite some more filtered sun today, temperatures will warm to
5 to 10 degrees warmer than yesterday. Forecast soundings show
dry air still in place above the mixing layer so odds are dew
points will fall below model guidance so used the canadian reg
as well as NBM 10th to get dew points lower for late morning
through early afternoon. Boundary layer moisture does begin to
advect in late this afternoon as an area of low pressure moves
into the Great Lakes region.

Tonight, rain showers move in from west to east. Chances of
precipitation were delayed until after 7 pm this evening as dry
air in place will take some time to saturate. Looking at RH
levels through the atmosphere, there does look to be a dry slot
trying to nudge into NEPA and the Southern Tier as the
precipitation begins so QPF amounts were lowered. Across the NY
thruway, steadier precipitation is possible as the low traverses
from west to east through northern NY.

Headed into Wednesday, a strong cold front moves through so day
time highs will likely occur before noon with falling
temperatures through the day. Really cut back on chances of
precipitation especially behind the cold front as the 500 mb
shortwave axis moves east of us as well as strong cold air
advection. Some models still show post frontal precipitation but
with the strength of the negative vorticity advection in the
mid and upper levels sinking air will make it tough to get much
beyond some isolated drizzle.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM update...

A quiet period is in store as the upper level trough slowly begins
to lift out of our region Wednesday night with high pressure
building in at the surface. As a result clear skies and light
winds will embrace the region Wednesday night. Cooler air mass
remains in place with lows falling into the mid 20s to low 30s
with the help of radiational cooling. Similar pattern continues
into Thursday with quiet and cool conditions expected under
northerly flow. Highs are expected to climb into the 50s
Thursday afternoon with plenty of sunshine. Another cool and
clear night is expected Thursday with lows ranging in the low to
mid 30s across the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
330 AM update...

Large scale upper level ridging moves in on Friday with quiet and
dry conditions expected to continue. Southerly flow returns
with temperatures beginning to climb back into the 60s once
again. Meanwhile a deep low pressure system moves into the upper
midwest Friday night into Saturday morning with a warm front
expanding from the Great Lakes through the Carolinas. We begin
to see the impacts of this system early Saturday morning with
the increasing chance of rain showers over our region. Behind
this front a warming trend establishes especially on Sunday with
temperatures expected to soar into the low to mid 70s. This
warm and unstable air mass may kick off some scattered afternoon
showers and thunderstorms. Overall the upper level ridge
continues to reign during this period with a few disturbances
moving through from Sunday into Monday. Pattern begins to break
sometime Tuesday with an upper trough pushes back in.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions with increasing high clouds are expected through
the afternoon hours. Mid-clouds and a few showers will try to
sneak into western terminals around or shortly after 00Z, but
restrictions are not expected until after 06Z. MVFR ceilings
will prevail for most of the late night hours, slipping into
fuel alternate around dawn as NW flow moves in. BGM and ITH have
a good chance of seeing at least brief IFR ceilings Tue morning.

South to SSW winds will remain gusty for the next few hours,
generally peaking 25 to 28 knots, though the odd 30 knot gust
can`t be ruled out. Winds will diminish quickly after sunset.

Outlook...
Wednesday thru Wednesday night...Occasional restrictions
possible in rain showers.

Thursday through Friday...Mainly VFR.

Saturday...Restrictions possible in rain showers, especially in
the afternoon and evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry conditions with gusty winds are expected again today. Min
RHs will fall below 30% for much of the region with a few
locations falling below 20%, mainly in warmer valley locations.
Wind gusts this afternoon will get up to near 25 mph for higher
elevations and 15 to 20 mph for valley locations. With fine
fuels drying out yesterday and continued drying late this
morning into the afternoon, a SPS has been issued for NY and
expanded to cover NEPA counties.

RH does look to recover late this afternoon into the early
evening as dew points begin to rise as moisture begins to move
in from the SW ahead of a cold front. Models tend to bring
moisture in too quickly so RHs were kept lower until after
sunset.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJG
NEAR TERM...AJG/MPH
SHORT TERM...ES
LONG TERM...ES
AVIATION...AJG/MPH
FIRE WEATHER...AJG/MPH