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000
FXUS63 KBIS 210229
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
929 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Southerly wind to bring high temperatures back into the upper
  50s to mid 60s for Sunday.

- Rain chances late Sunday night, Monday, lingering through
  Monday night. Greatest chances (~30 to 50 percent north of
  Interstate 94) Monday through Monday night.

- West to northwest winds gusting to 50 mph will be possible Monday,
  with the highest gusts over western and far south central
  North Dakota.

- Near critical fire weather conditions possible on Monday, especially
  south of Highway 2 to the South Dakota border.

- Rain chances return later in the work week into the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 914 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Clear skies remain over western and central North Dakota late
this Saturday evening. Temperatures have dropped into the 30s
with dewpoints already down into the teens and some single
digits. Last night some of the normally cooler spots west of the
river (especially southwest) remained cloudy through much of
the night. Although 85H temperatures have risen since early this
morning, with the low dewpoints, clear skies and high pressure
overhead, will drop lows a little over western ND, and
especially those areas from around Hettinger to Hazen that are
normally colder. Overall, only minor changes, going from lower
20s to mid-upper teens. Updated text products will be
transmitted shortly.

UPDATE
Issued at 543 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Surface high pressure is situated over the MONDAK region with a
modest northwest surface flow across western and central North
Dakota late this afternoon. There are some gusts into the 20 to
30 mph range over central ND but these are expected to diminish
early this evening. Otherwise, sunny skies through the evening
hours with temperatures falling into the 30s by mid evening with
overnight lows in the 20s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Surface high pressure will keep skies mainly clear through
tonight. Northwest winds will diminish somewhat and become more
westerly through tonight. Look for overnight lows to once again
be below freezing and generally in the 20s. Ridging aloft will
bring warm southwesterly flow, while a gradient at the surface
also turns winds southerly. The result will be warming
temperatures back into the 60s yet continued dry and mainly
clear conditions, although some clouds may return later in the
day. Afternoon RH could drop into the 20s for most areas.
Winds are not forecast to be at critical fire weather criteria
although may become slightly breezy in the afternoon. Clipper
system then looks to approach ND Sunday night. The advancing
cold front could bring a few showers across the west as it does
so and bring some breezy westerly winds. This clipper system
then moves through Monday through Monday night. Chances for rain
remain in the forecast, although QPF values keep trending down.
A slight northward shift today also shifted higher PoPs
northward. There could be an isolated thunderstorm Monday
afternoon given low MUCAPE and steep mid level lapse rates. The
threat looks to isolated at this time to place in the forecast.
Of more concern are strong westerly winds forecasted with the
passage of this wave. Current NBM forecast has advisory level
winds in the west, and near advisory elsewhere, with gusts 40 to
50 mph. Would like to see better pressure rises to be more
confident in these winds, although left in NBM for the time
being. These winds combined with low afternoon RH in the 20s and
perhaps 30s could bring some near critical fire weather concerns
for Monday especially south of Highway 2 to the South Dakota
border. CLoud and precipitation forecast are currently
contributing to areas of uncertainty for critical fire weather
conditions. This will have to be monitored with subsequent
forecasts. Highs Monday will be in the 50s and 60s, with lows
Monday night in the 30s. Perhaps some snow mixes in Monday night
as precipitation diminishes, although confidence for this is
low.

Tuesday is now trending dryer and cooler in the wake of Monday`s
disturbance. Breezy to perhaps windy west northwest winds could
linger in the south and east, although improved RH values should
help limit fire weather concerns. Brief and perhaps flat ridging
looks to move in mid week. Warming temperatures back to near
normal readings and bring mainly dry conditions. Late week
through the weekend we are still seeing signals for an active
yet seasonable weather pattern. This could return chances for
rain showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms while temperatures
remain near seasonable during the day and perhaps above freezing
at night. Depending how this active pattern plays out perhaps
some breezy to windy conditions can also be found at times late
week into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 543 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the 00Z TAF period.

Northwest winds generally 15 to 25 mph at TAF issuance will
diminish early this evening and shift west, and eventually
southwest by Sunday morning. Sunday afternoon, southwest winds
will increase again to around 15 to 25 mph.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
DISCUSSION...Anglin
AVIATION...TWH