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Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
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FWSBIS

Spot Forecast for West ARD lake...U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1158 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1200 CDT on April 21.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Clear skies and dry conditions will be found today. Westerly winds early this
afternoon will become southwest this afternoon, then south this evening, with gusts
near 20 mph. Afternoon minimum humidity values will fall to near 20 percent today.
Tonight, clouds will go on the increase, with perhaps a few showers by day break.
Winds will stay south most of the night, with a wind shift back to the west expected
early to mid Monday morning.

Near critical fire weather conditions are then expected across the burn area on Monday.
A steady northwest wind will increase to 15 to 25 mph late morning through the afternoon,
with gusts near 30 mph. Temperatures in the lower 60s will provide for afternoon humidity
to be in the mid 20s. Periods of clouds and chances for a few showers will also
be found on Monday morning, and again later Monday afternoon into the evening.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 60.
Min humidity........19 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 8 to 12 mph shifting to the
                    southwest 10 to 15 mph after 1500. Wind gusts up to 20 mph.
Mixing height.......5700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 15 to 20 mph becoming southwest after 1500. Wind gusts up to
                    25 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (62700 knot-ft).
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........4   4   4   6   7   13
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............54  57  58  58  58  59
RH..............25  21  20  23  23  22
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..8   8   9   10  11  12
20 FT wind gust.13  12  13  14  14  15
Mix hgt (kft)...4.2 4.7 5.2 5.5 5.7 5.5
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   W   SW
Transp wind spd.17  16  17  16  17  20
Haines index....5   5   5   4   4   4
Dispr kt-ft/1K..63  65  77  77  85  93

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy then becoming mostly cloudy. Slight  chance
                    of rain shower late in the night.
CWR.................5 percent.
Chance of pcpn......15 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 41.
Max humidity........65 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 8 to 12 mph shifting to the
                    south 9 to 14 mph with gusts up to 20 mph
                    after 0000.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South southwest 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (89100 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (5000 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Haines Index........4 to 6 or low to high potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........23  32  39  47  55  63  71  80  82  81  70  64
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............60  58  55  49  46  45  44  43  43  42  42  41
RH..............22  25  30  37  43  45  47  51  53  57  60  62
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..12  12  10  9   10  11  11  13  13  11  10  10
20 FT wind gust.15  14  14  13  14  17  19  20  20  19  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)...5.2 4.6 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.20  18  13  13  15  17  18  18  18  17  15  13
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   4   4   5   5   6   6
Dispr kt-ft/1K..89  73  9   6   6   7   8   9   9   8   6   5

.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly to mostly cloudy.
                    Chance of rain showers in the morning. Slight chance of
                    rain showers in the late afternoon through the evening.
CWR.................5 percent.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 63.
Min humidity........25 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds becoming west winds around 7 to 15 mph in the morning.
                    West northwest winds 15 to 23 mph with gusts near 30 mph in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......9600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 10 to 20 mph increasing to 20 to 30 mph in the afternoon. A few
                    high gusts as well in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (4200 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to very good (101200 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon increasing to very good (149100
                    knot-ft) early in the morning increasing to
                    excellent (230500 knot-ft) in the afternoon in
                    the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 6 or very low to high potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........62        81        49        33
Weather cov.....          CHANCE    CHANCE    SLIGHT CHANCE
Weather type....NONE      RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0         5         5         5
Chc of pcpn (%).10        30        30        15
LAL.............1         1         1         1
Temp............41        46        57        61
RH..............65        63        36        26
20 FT wind......SW 9G14   W 11G15   W 18G20   W 23G27
Mix hgt (ft)....400       800       4800      8700
Transport wind..SW 12     W 16      W 24      W 28
Haines index....6         4         4         5
Dispr kt-ft/1K..4         12        101       205

$$
Forecaster...ANGLIN
Requested by...Terry Gwilliams
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2411608.0/BIS
.DELDT 04/21/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Terry_Gwilliams@fws.gov
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
