455
FXUS64 KBMX 030548
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1248 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 110 PM CDT THU MAY 2 2024

This afternoon.

A mid-level shortwave was over the ArkLaMiss Region at midday
while mid-level ridging was over much of the Southern and Eastern
Gulf of Mexico. Surface high pressure was centered to our
northeast across much of the Carolinas and Southern Virginia.
Locally, there is the remnants of a weak low-level boundary that
is only discernible by surface dew point analysis. This boundary
generally extended from northwest to southeast along the
Interstate 22 / U.S. Highway 280 corridor and latest satellite
imagery depicts low to mid-level cumulus development near and
northeast of this boundary. A few relatively shallow showers may
eventually develop near/north of this diffuse moisture gradient
with the lower-level cumulus through afternoon, but substantial
dry air aloft generally above 700 mb will help limit vertical
development. Highs will range from the upper 80s northeast to
around 90 far southeast. Winds will increase from the south and
southeast at 7-14 mph.

Tonight.

The mid-level shortwave is forecast to weaken with time as it
moves over our area overnight, but enough forcing from this
disturbance and the accompanying convective outflow boundary is
expected to support isolated showers generally along and northwest
of the Interstate 59 corridor with potential for a few showers
across the southwest arching northeast to south of Anniston.
Scattered showers will be possible across our far northwest
counties where a stray thunderstorm will be possible as well. Some
patchy fog is forecast to develop before daybreak across the far
southwest counties. Winds will be from the south at 3-6 mph. Low
temperatures will range from the low 60s in the higher elevations
east to the upper 60s southwest.

Friday.

The initial mid-level shortwave will continue to become more
diffuse with time as it moves over East Tennessee and North-
Central Georgia by mid-morning while a more defined shortwave
approaches from the southwest, moving over the area toward mid to
late afternoon. A cold front will become stationary to our
northwest, extending from the Middle Ohio River Valley southwest
through the Mid-South Region and extending further west into
Central Texas. Chances for showers with some thunderstorms
northwest will continue through the morning, with a decrease in
coverage and intensity expected due to the departing shortwave
before activity increases across all but our far southeast
counties in the afternoon as the stronger shortwave arrives. Winds
will become southwest at 6-12 mph. High temperatures will range
from the lower 80s far northwest to the upper 80s far southeast.

05

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 208 PM CDT THU MAY 2 2024

No changes in the forecast for this weekend through early next
week. Several shortwaves will slide through the region over the
weekend leading to continued rain chances. It`s unlikely that
it`ll be raining nonstop, but nailing down when each wave of
rain/thunderstorms move through the area will be challenging.
Otherwise, warm weather is expected through midweek.

25/Owen

Previous long-term discussion:
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 203 AM CDT THU MAY 2 2024

We will continue to see a shortwave slide through the area Friday
night in Saturday. This along with the subtropical jet streak
nosing in, we should see scattered to numerous showers and storms
into Saturday morning. The highest chances will be in the north
where heights will be lower. Overall dynamics are weak with this
system so severe weather is not expected.

Sunday into Monday ridging will strengthen ahead of a deep trough
moving into the western CONUS. Rain chances will decrease, but there
will still be some scattered shower and thunderstorm activity with
elevated PWATs combined with weak shortwaves and daytime heating.
Ridging and associated warm air aloft increases further on Tuesday
as a deep upper low ejects out over the Northern Plains. This should
result in dry conditions with 90 degree temperatures becoming more
common across the southern counties as low-level southwesterly flow
strengthens for end of this period.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1243 AM CDT FRI MAY 3 2024

A zonal upper flow pattern across the southern United States with
weak ridging along the Gulf Coast will result in scattered to
numerous showers with embedded tstms impacting mainly north
Alabama thru the period. Cigs will stay mostly aoa 5000 ft agl
with lcl vsbys blo 3 miles in heavy showers.

58/rose

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Moisture increases on Friday as a system moves into the area. RH
values will fall into the mid to upper 30s in the southeast, with
40s elsewhere. 20 foot winds from the south around 4-6 mph. Good
overnight recoveries are expected each night. Scattered
showers/storms return for Friday afternoon in the northwest and
spread east through Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     85  62  82  61 /  40  60  70  30
Anniston    85  63  83  63 /  40  60  70  30
Birmingham  84  64  83  64 /  40  60  60  20
Tuscaloosa  84  64  84  64 /  40  50  50  20
Calera      84  64  83  64 /  20  40  50  20
Auburn      85  66  83  66 /  20  20  60  20
Montgomery  87  65  87  65 /  20  20  40  20
Troy        87  65  87  64 /  20  20  40  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...58/rose