078
FXUS64 KBMX 031749
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1249 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 903 AM CDT FRI MAY 3 2024

The short-term forecast remains on-track, just made minor
adjustments to PoPs and Sky cover. The initial shortwave is now
over Northeast Georgia while we have some lingering showers across
parts of the northern counties with heavier activity across the
far northwest where a few lightning strikes were detected from
time to time. This activity is likely occurring along an outflow
boundary.

A more-defined shortwave is over much of Arkansas and Northern
Louisiana and will continue approaching the area through midday.
Expect increasing clouds across the west and southwest from mid
to late morning with chances for showers and storms developing and
arriving from the west through the afternoon, expanding further
eastward with time through the rest of the afternoon and into
tonight.

05

Previous short-term discussion:
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 242 AM CDT FRI MAY 3 2024

A rather messy upper flow pattern the next few days with several
waves of showers and embedded thunderstorms to track eastward across
the northern portions of Central Alabama. Despite decent coverage of
rain each day across the north, rainfall amounts will be rather
modest with most areas receiving less than one-half inch of total
rainfall. Highs in the mid to upper 80s expected across areas south
of I-20, while cloud cover and rain will keep temperatures slightly
cooler north of I-20, with highs in the lower to middle 80s.

58/rose

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 253 AM CDT FRI MAY 3 2024

Weak quasi-zonal flow aloft continues Sunday, with yet another
convectively enhanced shortwave/MCV moving in from the Plains
during the late afternoon and evening hours. PWATs around 1.8
inches will be favorable for scattered to numerous showers and
storms developing with daytime heating, highest chances north.
The shortwave appears a touch slower than previously forecast and
have raised PoPs Sunday evening. Shortwave ridging in advance of
the shortwave trough should allow temperatures to warm into the
mid to upper 80s ahead of convection. A deep trough will eject
across the Central and Northern Plains Monday with ridging
building ahead of it. The prior weak shortwave may still be close
enough to some of the northeastern counties to enhance diurnal
convection there. The deep trough remains across the north-central
CONUS on Tuesday as ridging builds over the Southeast CONUS.
Strengthening low-level southwesterly flow will cause efficient
mixing and warming temperatures/lowering dew points especially
across the southeast half of the area, suppressing convection. But
moisture pooling ahead of a stalled frontal boundary may remain
sufficient for isolated to scattered convection in the northwest
counties.

Wednesday and Thursday a trough with a strong positive tilt will
extend from the Great Lakes to the Four Corners while subtropical
ridging strengthens over the Gulf. The tightening mid-level height
gradient between these two features will result in strengthening WSW
flow aloft. A quasi-stationary frontal boundary will reside across
the Mid-South with several waves of low pressure riding along it. A
strong EML will result in a very unstable air mass south of the
front with strong deep layer shear as well. An early spring heatwave
with near record highs looks likely across the southern counties.
Will have to watch any convective disturbances skirting near the
northern counties along the northern fringes of the warmer 700mb
temperatures given a conditionally favorable environment for
severe storms.

32/Davis

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT FRI MAY 3 2024

Clouds will continue to increase from the west and southwest
through the afternoon. Showers with some storms will continue to
develop across portions of the north and west portions of the area
through mid afternoon, potentially affecting our northern
terminals through late afternoon. More widespread showers and
storms are moving east across Mississippi and will bring
widespread chances for showers and storms late this afternoon and
through the late evening hours. Lingering showers with a few
storms will remain most persistent across the central and eastern
counties overnight through late Saturday morning with lower
chances to the south and west.

05

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Moisture increases today. RH values will fall into the mid to
upper 30s in the southeast, with higher values elsewhere.
Scattered showers/storms return for Friday afternoon in the
north and west and spread east through Saturday. RH values range
from 40 to 60 percent Saturday afternoon, lowest values south.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     64  81  61  84 /  70  60  30  60
Anniston    63  82  63  85 /  70  60  30  60
Birmingham  65  82  65  86 /  70  50  30  50
Tuscaloosa  65  86  65  86 /  70  40  20  50
Calera      65  85  65  85 /  70  40  20  50
Auburn      65  85  66  84 /  50  40  30  40
Montgomery  66  87  66  89 /  60  40  20  30
Troy        65  88  64  89 /  40  40  30  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....32
AVIATION...05