215
FXUS64 KBMX 010825
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
325 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 135 AM CDT WED MAY 1 2024

A lingering shower is out there this morning. It is finally
showing signs of falling apart and should do so before sunrise. We
will also see fog develop across the area. Right now the worst vis
appears to be in the south. Will be monitoring for any advisories
as we see more development. As we move through the daytime hours,
we are going to get a late Spring preview with plenty of sun,
scattered cumulus clouds and highs in the mid to upper 80s. The
rainfall chances are below 10 percent, but a stray shower can not
be ruled out in the far south, just loo low to mention in the
forecast. Another mild night on tap tonight. Right now it appears
that the main fog development will be south of the area so will
not mention at this time. On Thursday, we will warm up even more,
with mid to upper 80s. There may even be a few local areas that
reach 90. At the same time there appears to be a boundary that
will be sliding north during the peak heating of the day. That
boundary may be enough to trigger a few showers/storms in the warm
environment. So with that in mind will include a low chance of
rain. More or less the typical summertime "hit-and-miss" variety.

Welcome to May!

16

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT WED MAY 1 2024

West-southwest flow aloft will be in place Thursday night through
Friday night between ridging over the Gulf and East Coast and
troughing over the Plains and Western CONUS. Several shortwaves
will be embedded in this flow emanating from Plains convection. A
subtropical impulse will help initiate an MCS over Texas later
today. While the MCS is expected to dissipate on Thursday before
reaching Alabama due to a dry/stable air mass, its MCV and
increased mid-level moisture along with a weak LLJ should result
in some patches of light rain and showers for at least the
northwest counties Thursday night. Moisture continues to increase
Friday and Friday night with continued weak shortwaves and the
left exit region of a subtropical jet streak nosing in. This
should support scattered to perhaps numerous showers and storms
during this period into Saturday morning, highest chances north
where heights will be lower. Bulk shear will be weak so not
expecting anything severe with this activity.

Sunday into Monday ridging will strengthen across the Central
CONUS ahead of a deep trough moving into the western CONUS. Rain
chances will decrease, but there will still be some scattered
shower and thunderstorm activity with elevated PWATs combined with
weak shortwaves and daytime heating. Ridging and associated
warm air aloft/capping increases further on Tuesday as a deep
upper low ejects out over the Northern Plains. This should result
in dry conditions with 90 degree temperatures becoming more common
across the southern counties as low-level southwesterly flow
strengthens.

32/Davis

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 135 AM CDT WED MAY 1 2024

With plenty of moisture at the surface, and light winds there is a
strong possibility of fog develop at most sites. The best and most
likely lowest vis will be in the south at TOI and MGM. Other sites
may drop to MVFR/IFR as well, but not as confident. After the fog
burns off by 14z, light winds and mostly sunny skies will prevail.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Rain free conditions today with RH values dropping into the 30s.
20 foot winds will be from north around 3-6 mph. Most of the area
will remain dry on Thursday as well, but there is a small chance
of seeing a shower or storm during the peak heating of the
afternoon. Despite the low chances of rain, minimum RH values on
Thursday will be in the 30s. 20 foot winds will be from south
around 5-7 mph. Scattered showers/storms return for Friday through
the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     85  55  87  62 /   0   0  10  20
Anniston    85  58  87  65 /   0   0  20  10
Birmingham  86  61  87  67 /   0   0  20  20
Tuscaloosa  87  61  87  65 /   0   0  20  30
Calera      85  60  86  65 /   0   0  20  20
Auburn      85  63  86  66 /   0   0  20  10
Montgomery  87  61  88  65 /  10   0  20  10
Troy        87  61  88  64 /  10   0  20   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....32/Davis
AVIATION...16