Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
000
FXUS64 KBMX 251750
AFDBMX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1250 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024
...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT THU APR 25 2024
The weak surface front has stalled out as expected near the U.S.
80/I-85 corridors early this afternoon. Dewpoints north of the
boundary are running in the upper 40s to lower 50s while 60s
dewpoints were observed across the far south. You can also
pinpoint where the front resides looking at visible satellite
imagery and where low-level cumulus clouds have formed. Meanwhile,
an upper level shortwave impulse within northwesterly flow at
500mb aided in the development of widespread showers and storms
across Arkansas, western Tennessee, and northern Mississippi. As
this activity attempts to move southeastward, most development is
expected to dissipate due to dry air remaining in place over
Alabama and Georgia. However, as the surface front lifts
northward as a warm front later today through the overnight, a
slight chance of showers or a storm remains in the forecast for
far western counties this afternoon. Northern and northeastern
counties could see some isolated activity overnight through early
Friday morning. Temperatures will be mild overnight with the warm
front moving northward, ranging from the mid 50s north to the
lower 60s south.
Increasing upper level heights on Friday will lead to very warm
temperatures with southerly flow at the surface. Although it
hasn`t been officially added to the forecast, we could see some
isolated convective activity in our far northeast counties based
on the latest CAMs. The old surface boundary will still be hanging
around as a wedge of cooler air tries to push westward from
northern Georgia. So far, I don`t have enough confidence to
include in the forecast just yet, but I wouldn`t rule out us
having to add a slight chance PoP from Cleburne County northward
to Cherokee County Friday afternoon. Under partly cloudy skies,
we`ll start to feel more like summer as highs reach the low to mid
80s, approaching the upper 80s in Pike and Barbour Counties.
56/GDG
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT THU APR 25 2024
Two significant shortwave ejections will occur across the Plains
and Midwest over the course of the Friday night through Sunday
period. Meanwhile a ridge will remain in place over the Southeast
CONUS through most of Monday. Eventually the second trough in the
Plains should progress eastward on Monday afternoon and Tuesday
with increasing rain chances mainly north of I-59. Models continue
to indicate a cold front that weakens on approach, and the
southern portions of our area may remain dry through Wednesday.
87/Grantham
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT THU APR 25 2024
VFR conditions will continue through the forecast period with
light or variable winds today and tonight. Southerly to
southeasterly surface winds will return on Friday, remaining under
10 knots.
56/GDG
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A weak front in the area will allow for isolated showers/storms
today through tonight. 20ft winds will light and variable today,
with minimum RH values of 30 to 35 in the northeast, and 35 to 45
percent, elsewhere. Friday, 20ft winds increase from the south at
6-12mph with minimum RH values above 35 percent. Rainfree
conditions continue through the weekend.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden 56 83 62 82 / 20 10 0 0
Anniston 58 82 62 81 / 10 10 0 0
Birmingham 61 84 64 82 / 20 10 0 0
Tuscaloosa 61 85 63 83 / 10 0 0 0
Calera 61 83 63 81 / 10 10 0 0
Auburn 62 82 63 80 / 10 10 0 0
Montgomery 62 86 65 84 / 10 0 0 0
Troy 61 86 64 83 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...56/GDG
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...56/GDG