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000
FXUS64 KBMX 200812
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
312 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 312 AM CDT SAT APR 20 2024

A frontal boundary has stalled out near the I-20 corridor as the
surface lows continue to slide east through the Mid-Atlantic and
Great Lakes. As we move through the day the front will begin to
slide to the south again as a kicker system begins to work into
the area. Scattered showers and a few storms will be possible,
especially this afternoon. The highest potential for storms will
be in the southeast, where differential heating will help add some
fuel to the airmass. Much lake the past several days strong
storms with gusty winds and hail are possible but should remain
isolated and limited.

By tonight the front should be south of the I-85 corridor and
north of I-10 in southern Alabama/Florida panhandle. Meanwhile a
disturbance and low pressure system will ride along and north of
the front tonight into Sunday. This will provide a fairly
widespread soaking rain to the area through Sunday morning.
Lightning will generally be limited to the far south through
Sunday. By Sunday afternoon the majority of the rain will be south
of the I-20 and continue to slide south and east.

16

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 312 AM CDT SAT APR 20 2024

Rain should be completely out of the forecast area Sunday evening
as a shortwave trough swings across the region. As high pressure
moves in, cool northerly flow will result in temperatures falling
into the lower to mid 40s for lows on Monday morning and again on
Tuesday morning. West-northwest flow at 500 mb and dry conditions
will be the story through Friday along with a significant warming
trend associated with westerly low-level flow.

87/Grantham

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1132 PM CDT FRI APR 19 2024

The earlier convection has dissipated and rain free conditions
expected thru 18Z. The next round of showers and a few tstms will
move int west Alabama Saturday afternoon. The activity will likely
be scattered, with vsbys above 3 miles. The cold front was located
near the I-20 corridor. Widespread MVFR cigs north of the cold
front will overspread the northern TAF sites by 09Z. At MGM/TOI,
mostly cirrus thru 12Z, with lcl IFR cigs 12-14Z. Cigs will become
VFR by 21Z and then back below 3000 ft agl by 00Z. Isolated tstms
possible south of I-20 after 18Z, but coverage too limited to
include in TAFs.

58/rose

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Behind a cold front, rain will move into the region later today
and continue through Sunday morning. Drier conditions return to
the region on Sunday afternoon into Monday. RH values on Monday
are expected to fall to around 30 percent with northerly 20 foot
winds of 6 to 10 mph.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     71  45  60  40 /  30  70  60   0
Anniston    73  48  57  41 /  30  80  80   0
Birmingham  69  47  59  42 /  40  80  70   0
Tuscaloosa  68  48  61  42 /  60  90  70   0
Calera      71  49  58  43 /  40  80  80   0
Auburn      79  52  58  47 /  40  70  90  10
Montgomery  79  53  59  45 /  60  70  80  10
Troy        83  56  61  45 /  70  50  80  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....87/Grantham
AVIATION...16