Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
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001 FXUS64 KBMX 280548 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1248 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday) Issued at 1046 PM CDT SAT APR 27 2024 Variable cloudiness and warm temperatures are expected tonight. Temperatures will remain in the low to mid 60s. A few upper 50s are possible near the Georgia stateline by sunrise. With a continued tightened pressure gradient, southeasterly winds will remain breezy overnight, at 6-12mph, with occasional higher gusts. 14 Previous short-term discussion: (This afternoon through Sunday) Issued at 1237 PM CDT SAT APR 27 2024 Varying degrees of southerly flow continues to pull warm air over the region with deep ridging centered over the East Coast. At the surface, there is some damming along the Appalachians and into northeast Alabama, but we`re pulling out of the cool season, so it`s not making much of a noticeable impact on temperatures. Expect to see highs in the mid 80s again today. However, it is supporting an enhanced pressure gradient in combination with a deepening trough over the Central Plains. Winds will be breezy this afternoon with gusts up to 20 mph. The pattern looks almost identical tomorrow. Pockets of moisture throughout the tropospheric column will contribute to some low-level cu and high- level cirrus, but the more favorable conditions for rain will remain well to our west further away from the grasp of the ridge. Mild conditions tonight with lows in the lower to mid 60s followed by another nice warm-up into the lower to mid 80s by tomorrow afternoon. 86/Martin && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 217 PM CDT SAT APR 27 2024 Best chances for rainfall next week will be Monday afternoon and Monday night. An upper trof over the Plains states on Sunday will lift towards the Great Lakes region. A trailing upper trof axis will push into the Central Gulf Coast states Monday through Tuesday. The forcing associated with the upper trof will be waning as it approaches Alabama. The NAM and GFS models show the more robust convection trending southeast towards the better instability over southern Mississippi, with the northern portion of the line weakening. This should keep any severe storms over Mississippi, which lines up with the Day3 SPC convective outlook. The ECMWF model shows a more amplified and slower trof. Hopefully, some beneficial rainfall will occur before this system lifts out of the area on Tuesday. Beyond Tuesday, rainfall chances decrease as a weak upper ridge builds over the area. 58/rose && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1242 AM CDT SUN APR 28 2024 VFR conditions continue across the area. There will be a brief window between 12 and 16z in which some low level MVFR ceilings develop, so included in the TAFS with this update. These clouds lift and we remain at/or above 5000 feet for the rest of this cycle. Winds will be gusty at times today with gusts up to 20 kts. 16 && .FIRE WEATHER... Southerly low level flow will keep afternoon RH values well above critical values. No wetting rain through Monday morning, with increasing rain chances across west Alabama late Monday afternoon into Monday night and again on Tuesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 82 58 84 60 / 0 0 10 60 Anniston 82 60 84 62 / 0 0 10 40 Birmingham 82 62 84 63 / 10 0 20 60 Tuscaloosa 84 62 84 62 / 10 10 40 70 Calera 81 61 83 62 / 10 0 20 50 Auburn 81 61 83 64 / 0 0 10 20 Montgomery 84 61 85 63 / 0 0 20 30 Troy 84 60 85 62 / 0 0 10 10 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...14 LONG TERM....58 AVIATION...16