Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

Home |  Current Version |  Previous Version |  Text Only |  Print | Product List |  Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49
001
FXUS64 KBMX 280548
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1248 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 1046 PM CDT SAT APR 27 2024

Variable cloudiness and warm temperatures are expected tonight.
Temperatures will remain in the low to mid 60s. A few upper 50s
are possible near the Georgia stateline by sunrise. With a
continued tightened pressure gradient, southeasterly winds will
remain breezy overnight, at 6-12mph, with occasional higher
gusts.

14

Previous short-term discussion:
(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT SAT APR 27 2024

Varying degrees of southerly flow continues to pull warm air over
the region with deep ridging centered over the East Coast. At the
surface, there is some damming along the Appalachians and into
northeast Alabama, but we`re pulling out of the cool season, so
it`s not making much of a noticeable impact on temperatures.
Expect to see highs in the mid 80s again today. However, it is
supporting an enhanced pressure gradient in combination with a
deepening trough over the Central Plains. Winds will be breezy
this afternoon with gusts up to 20 mph. The pattern looks almost
identical tomorrow. Pockets of moisture throughout the
tropospheric column will contribute to some low-level cu and high-
level cirrus, but the more favorable conditions for rain will
remain well to our west further away from the grasp of the ridge.
Mild conditions tonight with lows in the lower to mid 60s followed
by another nice warm-up into the lower to mid 80s by tomorrow
afternoon.

86/Martin

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 217 PM CDT SAT APR 27 2024

Best chances for rainfall next week will be Monday afternoon and
Monday night. An upper trof over the Plains states on Sunday will
lift towards the Great Lakes region. A trailing upper trof axis
will push into the Central Gulf Coast states Monday through
Tuesday. The forcing associated with the upper trof will be waning
as it approaches Alabama. The NAM and GFS models show the more
robust convection trending southeast towards the better instability
over southern Mississippi, with the northern portion of the line
weakening. This should keep any severe storms over Mississippi,
which lines up with the Day3 SPC convective outlook. The ECMWF
model shows a more amplified and slower trof. Hopefully, some
beneficial rainfall will occur before this system lifts out of
the area on Tuesday. Beyond Tuesday, rainfall chances decrease as
a weak upper ridge builds over the area.

58/rose

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1242 AM CDT SUN APR 28 2024

VFR conditions continue across the area. There will be a brief
window between 12 and 16z in which some low level MVFR ceilings
develop, so included in the TAFS with this update. These clouds
lift and we remain at/or above 5000 feet for the rest of this
cycle. Winds will be gusty at times today with gusts up to 20 kts.


16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Southerly low level flow will keep afternoon RH values well above
critical values. No wetting rain through Monday morning, with
increasing rain chances across west Alabama late Monday afternoon
into Monday night and again on Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     82  58  84  60 /   0   0  10  60
Anniston    82  60  84  62 /   0   0  10  40
Birmingham  82  62  84  63 /  10   0  20  60
Tuscaloosa  84  62  84  62 /  10  10  40  70
Calera      81  61  83  62 /  10   0  20  50
Auburn      81  61  83  64 /   0   0  10  20
Montgomery  84  61  85  63 /   0   0  20  30
Troy        84  60  85  62 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....58
AVIATION...16