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000
FXUS61 KBTV 230237
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1037 PM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather will continue through Tuesday afternoon before rain
moves back into the region Tuesday night and Wednesday ahead of a
strong cold front. Temperatures will drop throughout the day on
Wednesday with the chance for  snow on Wednesday as precipitation
tapers off. Only minor accumulations of snow are expected given a
period of warm temperatures ahead of the falling snow. Dry weather
returns late this week into the weekend before the next round of
rain late this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1035 PM EDT Monday...Dry conditions will persist overnight
with temperatures trending marginally cooler than previously
forecast. Adjustments were made to steepen the cooling curve and
drop temperatures by a degree or so, especially across portions
of northeastern Vermont. Otherwise, the forecast remains in
great shape.

Previous Discussion...It remains deceptively cool this
afternoon but at least temperatures have warmed into the mid 40s
under sunny skies. Gusty northwest winds up to 25 mph will
continue through the daylight hours with winds diminishing
rapidly after sunset. During the overnight period, winds will
begin to switch to the south/southwest and will become
increasingly strong and gusty as we head into the daylight hours
on Tuesday. Noticeably warmer temperatures are expected Tuesday
with highs in the 60s across the North Country. Winds will also
be noticeably stronger on Tuesday as we see stronger winds move
in aloft. Deep afternoon mixing up to 8000 ft is expected given
efficient diurnal heating which will allow wind gusts up to 35
mph to materialize. The strongest winds are expected from the
Champlain Valley westward but winds will be gusty across the
entire region. Rain chances will return to the forecast Tuesday
night as a strong cold front approaches the region from the
west. By daybreak on Wednesday, rain will most likely overspread
the entire region leading to a wet morning commute.

Increased fire weather concerns will exist on Tuesday. Please see
the fire weather discussion below for more details.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 302 PM EDT Monday...Very changeable weather expected on
Wednesday as a strong cold front quickly crosses the region from
northwest to southeast. Widespread rain will be ongoing out ahead of
this boundary, which should lie poised very near or just west of the
St Lawrence Valley Wednesday morning. The airmass behind the front
is much cooler, and as temperatures plummet some 5-10 degrees or
more as the front moves through, rain will mix with and change over
to snow. However, precipitation will also rapidly be coming to an
end during this transition as the incoming airmass will also be much
drier, as evidenced by PWATS dropping to around 0.10 inch by
Wednesday evening. So the period for snow will be short lived, and
given how warm the ground will be, accumulations will be minimal,
generally restricted to above 1000 ft. Highs will be early in the
day for most locations, though the St Lawrence Valley may rebound
back into the 40s in the afternoon under increasing sunshine. Winds
will turn to the northwest as the front moves through, and with
steep low-level lapse rates, they`ll remain gusty to 30-35 mph, with
locally higher gusts possible.

Precipitation comes to an end by sunset Wednesday night and skies
will clear as high pressure settles over the region. Winds will
abate overnight as well, and given the cold, dry airmass,
radiational cooling will allow temperatures to drop through the 20s,
and even teens, by Thursday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 302 PM EDT Monday...The end of the work week will feature
another round of dry conditions with high pressure slowly crossing
the region. Thursday will be cool with highs only the mid 40s to mid
50s, though there will be abundant sunshine and light winds. The
ridge shifts east on Friday, setting up south/southwest flow and a
warmer, though continued sunny and dry, day. Precipitation chances
increase for the weekend and heading into early next week as upper
shortwaves rotate up and around the top of the ridge. Still some
model differences in which of these disturbances is able to break
down the ridge and/or how far south precipitation associated with
each one is able to intrude into the dry air. Have stayed with NBM
PoPs for now, which gives 30-60% chances much of the latter part of
this period, with highest chances north. One thing that is a little
more certain - after a cool day on Thursday, we`ll see a warming
trend as the ridge axis sets up to our east. Current indications are
highs will be well into the 60s by early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 00Z Wednesday...VFR conditions will persist through the
entire TAF period at all terminals. Winds have generally been
lightening this evening and they should remain relatively light
overnight, except at MSS and BTV. At MSS, they will remain
relatively constant overnight with gusts between 10-20 KTs out of
the southwest. Winds at BTV will become southerly and increase to up
to 10 KTs tonight. During the day tomorrow, winds will become
southerly at all terminals and become stronger, with gusts up to 20
KTs possible at any terminal. Wind shear should not reach the LLWs
threshold at any terminal but it will still be relatively strong
tonight, particularly at any terminal that has light winds.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Definite
SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite RA,
Chance SHSN.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 302 PM EDT Monday...Dry weather is expected to continue
across the region through Tuesday afternoon with strong high
pressure situated across the region. We have seen RH values dip
into the upper teens to mid 20s this afternoon with winds
gusting as high as 25 mph at times. For tomorrow, the RH values
are expected to be slightly higher during the afternoon hours
with RH values ranging from 24% to 32% but winds will be gusting
as high as 35 mph from the south. Based on our local red flag
criteria, we are expected to hit red flag conditions (25+ mph
winds and RH below 30%) for much of the afternoon tomorrow.
However, fuels remain sufficiently moist to prohibit the
issuance of a red flag warning. Nevertheless, fine fuels such as
leaf litter and twigs are sufficiently dry to start a few brush
fires. As such, open burning is not encouraged for the
remainder of today or tomorrow. In addition, the state of New
York has a burn ban in place through May 14th.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Clay
NEAR TERM...Boyd/Clay
SHORT TERM...Hastings
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...Myskowski
FIRE WEATHER...Clay