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000
FXUS61 KBTV 191747
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
147 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
After a lull in precipitation, scattered showers will return for
today and Saturday, accompanied by some breezy winds. Temperatures
will be seasonably cool, with highs ranging in the 40s to 60s. Drier
air returns Sunday, with quiet weather to start the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 136 PM EDT Friday...Light precipitation will start to edge
into the area imminently. We still have some dry air present,
but we should observe rain drops begin to reach the ground in
about an hour or so. There`s not much change to report this
afternoon. All is in great shape!

Previous Discussion...Cloudy albeit mostly dry weather will
start off the morning across the region this morning, with
increasing winds as a low level jet strengthens over the region.
Wind gusts between 15 to 30 will be possible at the surface,
while the higher summits could see gusts up to 45 mph. Heading
into the afternoon, a cold front will move eastward across the
region, bringing chances for some light showers through the
overnight hours. Precipitation amounts will this system will be
light, with less than 0.25 inches expected across northern New
York and even less across eastern Vermont as the front begins to
weaken. High temperatures will climb into the mid 50s to the
low 60s under mostly cloudy conditions and southerly flow.
Overnight lows will be on the mild side as precipitation exits
eastward, with temperatures in the mid 30s to mid 40s.

By Saturday, drier air will follow behind the cold front, along with
brisk winds and cooler temperatures, with wind gusts between 20 to
35 mph. A fairly vigorous shortwave will swing through during the
day on Saturday, bringing additional chances for scattered showers,
with the greatest chances near the international border. The lack of
available moisture will limit the potential for measurable
precipitation with this system, especially with some drier air at
the surface to overcome. Daytime highs will be on the cool, with
temperatures in the upper 40s and 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 353 AM EDT Friday...A few lingering rain showers will be
possible Saturday evening with the upper level trough axis swinging
through the North Country. Based on the degree of cold air
advection, we could see a few mountain snow showers right as
precipitation comes to an end for little to no accumulation. Drier
air quickly begins filtering into the region during the pre-dawn
hours on Sunday which is expected to bring a decent end to the
weekend albeit on the cloudier side. By Sunday evening, a frontal
boundary will move across the North Country while shearing out. This
will likely lead to some scattered rain and snow showers, mainly
above 2000 ft, Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 353 AM EDT Friday...Buckle up for the roller coaster of
temperatures next week as we transition from zonal flow aloft to a
more amplified/meridional upper level pattern. Monday will be on the
cooler side with highs in the 40s in the wake of the cold front
that`ll come through during the pre-dawn hours. However, mid-level
heights will begin to rise in response to a developing mid-latitude
cyclone over the central US which should allow a nice surge of warm
air advection into the region on Tuesday. This should allow for
temperatures to warm into the upper 50s to lower 60s with some
sunshine although winds will become increasingly gusty as the
aforementioned mid-latitude cyclone shifts eastward. A strong cold
front is slated to move through the region late Tuesday through
Wednesday which should bring a nice swath of rainfall to the region
with the latest ensembles hinting at a widespread 0.25" to 0.5" of
rain. Nothing significant but enough to continue to quell any fire
weather concerns. Following this frontal passage, an atypically cold
air mass will descend across the region on Thursday with high
temperatures likely to struggle to climb into the low to mid 40s
with gusty northerly winds making it feel like it`s in the 20s and
30s. Deterministic and ensemble guidance are both in good agreement
with this period of colder temperatures with 850 mb temperatures
anomalies of 12 to 18 degrees below normal. This will be short-
lived, however, as the upper level flow begins to speed up and
pushes the low pressure system responsible for the colder air out to
see. How long the showers linger across the North Country is up in
the air but it`s a fair bet that upslope showers along the higher
terrain look likely late next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 18Z Saturday...Currently VFR flight conditions with
showers beginning to shift east into the region. Most
precipitation is expected to be light with little impact to
visibility, but with some 1500-3000 ft agl ceilings. Some
lingering showers will be possible in Vermont overnight, and
with lower ceilings potentially lingering through 12z in
Vermont impacting KRUT the most. South to southwest flow will
remain elevated through about 03z at 7 to 15 knots sustained
with gusts 18 to 25 knots. There still could be pockets of LLWS
with pockets of 45 to 50 knot winds at 2000 ft agl, with
potential impacts mainly possible over KMSS, KSLK, KPBG, and
KEFK. After 03z, surface winds trend to 4 to 8 knots and make a
steady transition to westerly winds, but may be sharper at KRUT.
Ceilings beyond 12z will remain mainly at or above 5000 feet
with showers developing in the afternoon. Activity should
initiate first near KMSS about 15z, and spread east beyond 18z
Saturday.



Outlook...

Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Likely SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kremer
NEAR TERM...Haynes/Kremer
SHORT TERM...Clay
LONG TERM...Clay
AVIATION...Haynes