722
FXUS62 KCHS 160518
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
118 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will prevail across the area tonight and persist
into Friday. A storm system will affect the area this weekend,
followed by high pressure from the north next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Aloft, a shortwave trough will continue to track across the western
Atlantic late, with considerable NVA to follow in its wake across
the local area for the remainder of the night. At the sfc, a cold
front offshore will continue to shift further east and away from the
region while high pressure builds across the local area from the
west-northwest. The setup will favor dry and slightly cooler
conditions across southeast South Carolina and southeast Georgia
with low temps dipping into the low-mid 60s inland to upper 60s near
the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A relatively progressive pattern will exist during the short
term period. A shortwave ridge will move through on Thursday,
yielding warm temps and dry weather. Highs expected to be in the
mid to upper 80s.

A deepening southerly flow will bring an increase in moisture
on Friday. A shortwave trough will lift northeast through the
area late Friday, potentially bringing a few showers or tstms in
from the west Friday afternoon.

A longwave upper trough will shift into the eastern United
States Friday night and Saturday. A tropical airmass will
overspread the area with PWATs approaching 2". A weak warm front
will lift north through the area Friday night, then a potent
shortwave will move through on Saturday. Fairly widespread
showers and thunderstorms are expected during this period with
many areas potentially receiving more than 1" of precipitation.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The upper trough axis will swing through on Sunday, potentially
producing a few showers or tstms. Then, dry and warm weather
expected as an upper ridge gradually builds from the west.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
KCHS/KJZI: There might be some low stratus for a few hours between
10Z and 14Z Thursday. But the probabilities are too low, so
prevailing VFR through 00Z Friday.

KSAV: VFR will prevail through 00Z Friday.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Showers and thunderstorms could
bring flight restrictions to all terminals Saturday and Saturday
night as a low pressure system impacts the region.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: A cold front will continue to push east across the western
Atlantic with cooler high pressure building in its wake. West winds
should gust no higher than 10-15 kt across most waters, with the
exception across offshore Georgia waters where gusts up to 20 kt are
possible for the next couple hours. Winds should slowly decrease
late and tip more west-northwest. Seas will generally range between
2-3 ft across nearshore waters and 3-4 ft across offshore Georgia
waters.

Thursday through Monday: Conditions through the period are
expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria. High
pressure will build in at the surface on Thursday, then a cold
front pushes through on Saturday. High pressure returns early
next week.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...
MARINE...DPB