Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
291 FXXX12 KWNP 061231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 May 06 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached high levels. Region 3663 (N25W45, Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) produced an X4.5/3b flare (R3/Strong) at 06/0635 UTC, one of the stronger flares of the solar cycle so far. No radio sweeps were observed with the event but a CME signature was observed in subsequent coronagraph imagery beginning at 06/0712 UTC in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery. The CME appeared to be narrow and oriented far northward. Analysis and modeling of the event is ongoing. In the past 24 hours, Region 3663 produced eight other events that reached the R1 (Minor) threshold. Region 3664 (S19E09, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) was also productive with two R1 events originating from the region. Slight growth was observed in Region 3664s trailer spots and only minor changes were observed in Region 3663s intermediate spots. The remaining spotted active regions were either mostly stable or in gradual decay. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to range from moderate to high levels over 06-08 May, with M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) expected and a high chance for X-class flares (R3/Strong), due to the flare potential of Regions 3663 and 3664. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels over 06-08 May. There is a chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) storm levels over 06-08 May due to the flare potential of Regions 3663 and 3664. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Ambient solar wind conditions prevailed until around 05/1500 UTC, when a mild enhancement, likely associated with the arrival of the 03 May CME, commenced. Total field strength increased to a peak of 16 nT around 06/0630 UTC. The Bz component was sustained southward between 05/1800-06/0520 UTC, and reached as far south as -12 nT. Solar wind speeds slowly climbed over the period and reached just over 500 km/s late in the reporting period. .Forecast... Mildly enhanced solar wind conditions and positive polarity CH HSS influences are likely to prevail over 06-08 May. A stronger disturbance is expected on 06 May due to the passage of the 03 May CME. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was quiet to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels with the arrival of a CME that left the Sun on 03 May. .Forecast... Periods of G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) storming are likely on 06 May due to CME activity and positive polarity CH HSS influences. Active conditions are likely on 07 May with the expected onset of another positive polarity CH HSS. Quiet and unsettled levels are expected to prevail on 08 May with waning CH HSS influences.