204
FNUS73 KDMX 011554
FWSDMX

Spot Forecast for Colwell...RES - p/ Iowa NRCS
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1054 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1200 CDT on May 01.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

An initial observation at ignition and a mid burn observation are required.

Please relay them to the National Weather Service for each prescribed burn.

.DISCUSSION...

Main push of rain will arrive later this afternoon, reaching the
burn site after 3pm. RH values to drop into the low 30s this
afternoon, but plenty of moisture is available from recent
rainfall to dampen the chance for spread. Winds will veer through
the day as an area of low pressure approaches from the west. Winds
in the morning will begin out of the northwest becoming north to
northeast through the afternoon hours. Some gusts up to 30mph will
be possible for the next 2-3 hours.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers late in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 69.
Min humidity........35 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 10 to 18 mph.
Mixing height.......3200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 14 to 23 mph shifting to the north
                    around 13 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (28400 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (57300 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
GFDI................1.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........69  64  68  63  56  68
Weather cov.....                SCH
Weather type....                RW
Tstm cov........
Temp............62  64  66  68  69  68
RH..............44  41  38  36  35  37
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  NW  NW  N   N
20 FT wind spd..18  16  14  13  12  10
20 FT wind gust.26  23  20  17  16  15
Mix hgt (kft)...2.3 3.0 3.0 3.2 3.1 2.6
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  NW  N   N   N
Transp wind spd.23  22  18  15  14  13
GFDI............1   1   1   1   1   1
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5
SDspl kt-ft/100047  57  48  41  37  28

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms in the evening, then
                    showers and thunderstorms likely overnight.
Min temperature.....Around 51.
Max humidity........83 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 7 to 9 mph shifting to the east
                    around 15 mph early in the morning. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 6 to 8 mph shifting to the east 9 to 16
                    mph in the late evening and overnight, then
                    increasing to 18 to 22 mph after 3 am.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (19000 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (2300 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
GFDI................0.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........69     61     75     77     85     88
Weather cov.....S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........       CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY
Temp............67     61     55     53     52     51
RH..............40     53     66     74     77     83
20 ft wind......N 9    NE 7   E 8    E 10   E 13   E 14
20 ft wind gust.13     9      12     14     18     20
Mix hgt (ft)....1500   500    500    500    700    800
Transport wind..N 8    NE 6   E 9    E 13   E 16   E 18
GFDI............0      0      0      0      0      0
Haines index....5      5      5      5      4      4
SDspl kt-ft/100011     2      4      6      10     13

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Rain showers with
                    thunderstorms likely.
Max temperature.....Around 65.
Min humidity........80 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 17 to 21 mph shifting to the
                    south 15 to 18 mph late in the afternoon. Gusty
                    and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......1400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 22 to 30 mph shifting to the south 18
                    to 23 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (17200 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (34600 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
GFDI................1.
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........91        96        95        94
Weather cov.....DEFNTE    DEFNTE    DEFNTE    DEFNTE
Weather type....RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR
Tstm cov........LIKELY    LIKELY    LIKELY    LIKELY
Temp............52        52        58        62
RH..............80        93        90        90
20 FT wind......E 17G24   SE 20G26  SE 18G26  S 18G25
Mix hgt (ft)....1000      1300      1300      1200
Transport wind..E 22      SE 26     SE 29     S 23
GFDI............1         1         1         1
Haines index....4         2         2         3
SDspl kt-ft/100018        30        32        23

$$
Forecaster...Jimenez
Requested by...Danny Simcox
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2412929.0/DMX
.DELDT 05/01/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL dsimcox@res.us