Area Forecast Discussion
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Issued by NWS
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444 FXUS64 KEPZ 140927 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 327 AM MDT Tue May 14 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 323 AM MDT Tue May 14 2024 Warm temperatures with light winds can be expected for your Tuesday. Breezy winds return Wednesday and Thursday, along with a slight chance of rain over the mountains. Hot and dry weather conditions return this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 323 AM MDT Tue May 14 2024 Overall, no changes from the previous forecast packages with breezy afternoon winds and warming temperatures through the week. Broad ridge overhead will lead to further warming for today, with high temperatures topping out in the low 90s across the desert lowlands, with breezy afternoon winds. Like yesterday, an isolated shower or two will be possible over the the Black Range of the Gila Wilderness. However, surface dewpoints remain relatively dry in the mid-20s, suggesting very little to no precipitation occurring with any shower that does form. Weak Pacific low off the coast of southern California will move inland on Wednesday, leading to breezy afternoon winds with a slight cooling trend in temperatures by 2-5 degrees by Thursday. On Thursday, broad and weak dynamics aloft associated with this weak system will allow for sufficient enough moisture to infiltrate from the north. This will promote low-end shower/thunderstorm chances for portion of the forecast area. Mainly focused over Grant, Sierra, and Otero Counties. High pressure and ridging aloft will return to the region on Friday, lasting through the remainder of the period. This will ultimately promote warming temperatures through the weekend and into early next week. Desert lowland high temperatures will reach the mid-90s this weekend, with the possibility of El Paso`s first 100 degree day of 2024 on Sunday and Monday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1125 PM MDT Mon May 13 2024 VFR conditions persist through the forecast period. Winds AOB 8kts continue through the AM with some variability. Modest gusts into upper teens develop during the afternoon from S-SW, subsiding around sunset. Mainly SKC expected for most of period. Isolated virga/light rain showers develop again tomorrow afternoon over the Gila Region, similar to what was seen on Monday. KTCS has the best chance of a rain shower, but still only ~10%. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 323 AM MDT Tue May 14 2024 Fire weather conditions will be ELEVATED today and Wednesday with very dry conditions in place, along with breezy afternoon winds. Min RH values will be below 15% for almost all locations, 15-20 percent for the highest elevations. Winds will be 10-20 mph each afternoon with Very Good to Excellent smoke ventilation rates. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast on Thursday, mainly focused over the Gila and Sacramento Mtns. In response to the increase in moisture, Min RH values will be above 15 percent for the Gila/Sacs and Sierra County. Winds remain breezy out of the west/northwest at 15-20 mph. Breezy winds continue through the weekend, along with drying conditions and warming temperatures. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 93 65 92 66 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 87 60 87 60 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 91 59 90 58 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 89 55 89 54 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 66 44 67 41 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 87 57 87 56 / 10 0 0 0 Silver City 80 51 80 49 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 90 55 88 53 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 87 53 86 53 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 90 63 89 62 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 92 56 91 56 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 94 59 93 60 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 84 58 83 56 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 93 62 92 62 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 89 58 88 57 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 90 65 90 61 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 89 55 88 53 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 91 55 90 53 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 89 61 87 59 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 88 58 88 56 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 78 48 79 46 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 76 47 77 45 / 0 0 0 10 Timberon 75 47 75 44 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 78 50 78 49 / 10 0 10 0 Hillsboro 86 55 85 53 / 10 0 0 0 Spaceport 88 53 88 51 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 81 47 80 44 / 10 0 0 0 Hurley 84 48 82 47 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 87 52 86 50 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 82 52 82 51 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 83 53 82 50 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 87 52 86 52 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 87 55 86 54 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 87 55 85 53 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 81 52 80 51 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...38-Rogers