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FXUS64 KEWX 070506 AAA
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1206 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

...New AVIATION (06Z TAFS)...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 206 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Latest visible satellite images are showing some breaks in the cloud
coverage along the I-35 corridor and Coastal Plains areas early this
afternoon. Also, the combination of satellite images with surface
observations reveal the position of the dry-line which extends from
the Texas panhandle to the south and over Val Verde County. The dry-
line is forecast to push slowly to the east and over the Rio Grande
and southern Edwards Plateau for the rest of this afternoon before
pushing back to the west of the local area. With that said, expect
mostly sunny to sunny skies across a good portion of the Rio
Grande/southern Edwards Plateau and partly cloudy skies elsewhere.
Highs are likely to range from the low to mid 80s across the Hill
Country, along the I-35 corridor and Coastal Plains. There is a
slight chance to low end chances for showers and isolated
thunderstorms especially along the I-35 corridor this afternoon
where elevated pwat values and highest dew-point temperatures
reside. If this activity manages to develop, we could see a quick
downpour or two with gusty winds and can`t rule out hail. Thus far,
cap looks to be holding off pretty well.

Low clouds return and spread across the local area tonight into
Tuesday morning. Patchy to areas of fog are expected to form
overnight and remain through mid Tuesday morning. One of the areas
to possible be impacted with patchy dense fog could be parts of
Bexar County and nearby counties to the north and west. Overnight
lows forecast ranges from the upper 60s over a few locations across
the Hill Country with the rest of the local area in the low to mid
70s.

The dry-line is forecast to push into the Hill Country, over
portions of the southern Edwards Plateau and the Rio Grande on
Tuesday. This will allow for temperatures to reach the upper 80s to
upper 90s across those areas while areas along and east of I-35 and
Coastal Plains stay in the low 90s. We are not expecting any type of
showers or storms for Tuesday across the local area as an upper
level zonal flow takes control.

Once again clouds come back for Tuesday night with overnight lows in
the 70s for the most part. Dry weather pattern continues through
this period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 206 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

The upper level flow over TX will be southwesterly with a deep upper
low over the northern Plains at the start of the long term period.
The low level flow will continue from the south to southeast. Dry
weather will continue Wednesday. Temperatures will climb a few more
degrees to well above normal. Record highs are possible along the
Rio Grande Wednesday and Thursday. A cold front will move through
South Central Texas Thursday. This will only bring a slight chance
for rain to the northeastern part of the CWA. More significantly it
will bring relief from the heat. Highs behind the front will be 10 to
15 degrees cooler Friday. The cooler temperatures will continue over
the weekend. A second upper trough will develop on the backside of
northern Plains low and swing through the southern Rockies into the
southern Plains over the weekend. This may produce enough lift to
combine with daytime heating to generate convection each afternoon
Saturday through Monday. However, given the drier airmass POPs only
reach 20% each day and most places will be dry.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1201 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

MVFR ceilings are already spreading northward and over SAT and SSF
and should be at AUS shortly. IFR ceilings are a good bet after 07Z
at all sites, but should break and lift back to MVFR by 15-16Z and
VFR ceilings by 19Z as a weak frontal boundary sags into the region.
This shouldn`t impact winds much as they will quickly turn back out
of the ESE. No other significant items of note are in the forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              91  73  92  72 /  10   0  10   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  91  72  92  71 /  10   0  10   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     93  73  95  71 /   0   0  10   0
Burnet Muni Airport            88  72  92  69 /  10   0  10   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           99  76 104  72 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        89  72  90  71 /  10   0  10   0
Hondo Muni Airport             93  71  98  69 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        91  72  93  71 /   0   0  10   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   89  74  91  73 /   0   0  10   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       92  73  95  72 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           94  74  97  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...MMM
Long-Term...Platt
Aviation...MMM