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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 142145
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
245 PM MST Sun Apr 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...A strong low pressure system will bring gusty winds and
cooler temperatures this evening with isolated showers late
tonight and Monday. Temperatures will warm through the rest of
the week with lighter winds. The warmest daytime temperatures of
the year so far are expected from Wednesday through next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A large area of low pressure extends from south-
central California to north-central Nevada this afternoon. This
has brought gusty winds and cooler temperatures northern Arizona
today. Winds will remain gusty into this evening then decrease
some. Most areas will continue to see breezy conditions through
the night with winds increasing again on Monday and becoming more
westerly to northwesterly. Moisture will increase over northern
Arizona through Monday with isolated showers late tonight and
Monday. A thunderstorm or two are not out of the question late
Monday morning into Sunday evening...north of I-40. Moisture is
limited with this system so significant rainfall/high elevation
snow is not expected. Daytime temperatures will drop Monday another
5 to 10 degrees from today.

The trough of low pressure will move east of the area on Tuesday
with daytime temperatures rebounding rather quickly, about 10
degrees warmer than Monday. We will continue to see daytime temperatures
warm through the week...with some of the warmest temperatures of
the year so far by Wednesday...through next weekend. Winds will be
generally light on Tuesday...then southwest breezes (10-20 MPH)
each afternoon into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...Sunday 14/18Z through Monday 15/18Z...VFR conditions
and gusty southwest winds, especially through 02Z Monday. Sfc winds
S-SW15-25g30-38kts through 01Z-03Z, then SW10-20g25kts overnight.

OUTLOOK...Monday 15/18Z through Wednesday 17/18Z...VFR conditions.
ISOLD -SHRA/-SHSN from 19Z-01Z Monday may create very localized and
brief MVFR. Through 02Z Tuesday, sfc winds of SW-W10-20g25kts, but
gusts of 30-35kts over Apache County. Otherwise, VFR and generally
light SW-W winds AFT 02Z Tuesday and through the end of the outlook
period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Sunday evening through Tuesday...For Sunday
evening, expect southwest winds from 15 to 25 mph and gusts from
30 to 40 mph. Winds will decrease overnight, but not fully
decouple. Cooler temperatures Monday, with isolated convective
showers during the afternoon. Winds Monday turning more westerly,
15 to 25 mph, with gusts from 30 to 40 mph over the eastern zones.
Turning warmer and dry Tuesday, with west through southwest winds
10 to 20 mph.

Wednesday through Friday...Turning much warmer and dry, with west
through southwest winds at 10 to 20 mph each afternoon.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MAS
AVIATION...Peterson
FIRE WEATHER...Peterson

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff