Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
000
FXUS64 KFWD 150716
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
Issued by National Weather Service Norman OK
216 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024
...New Aviation...
.SHORT TERM... /Issued 700 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024/
/This Evening Through Monday Afternoon/
Another warm and breezy day is coming to an end across North and
Central Texas this evening. Lingering clouds from this morning
continue to persist across our eastern counties as our ridge axis
begins its journey off into the Southeastern CONUS. In its wake, a
developing system will start to move across the Desert Southwest,
reinforcing southerly flow across the region. Low level moisture
will allow stratus to overtake North and Central Texas once again
through the overnight hours into early tomorrow morning, with
cloud cover lingering through much of the day. This will keep
overnight lows quite mild, generally ranging in the mid 60s.
Highs through tomorrow will range in the upper 70s and low 80s,
with a few locations out west reaching into the mid 80s. Cloud
cover should keep temperatures relatively moderated compared to
previous days, with potential for virga/sprinkles through the
early afternoon hours. Our attention will then turn to the late
afternoon hours where a few thunderstorms could develop off to our
northwest in portions of Oklahoma. Most of this convection will
remain elevated in nature since we will be quite displaced from
the dry line, though stronger storms will be capable of hail and
damaging winds. Overall coverage will remain quite sparse however,
thanks to a strengthening cap that will be in place. For more
details regarding overnight storm chances through Monday, please
see the long term portion of the discussion below.
Reeves
&&
.LONG TERM... /Issued 145 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024/
Update:
The forecast discussion below remains on track. The greatest
potential for a few strong to severe thunderstorms will fall
between 8PM-2AM Monday night, predominantly along/north of I-20
and west of I-35. Isolated hail and damaging winds will be the
primary hazards. It is still very likely that storms weaken as
they approach the I-35 corridor Monday night due to strong
capping. There is a low chance for storms to redevelop and or
reintensify across our far eastern counties late Tuesday morning
into early Tuesday afternoon before exiting to the east. It is far
more likely that this activity is east of our forecast area before
re-strengthening. Most locations will see less than 0.15" of rain
with this event with many remaining dry, especially over portions
of Central Texas. See the discussion below for more details
regarding the remainder of the long-term forecast period.
Langfeld
Previous Discussion:
/Monday Night Onward/
By Monday evening, a robust dryline/Pacific front structure in
West Texas should be initiating deep convection mainly upstream
of the forecast area with aid from upper-level ascent. This
initial supercellular activity is expected to undergo some upscale
growth while progressing eastward into North Texas later in the
evening. However, upon doing so, it should encounter rather strong
capping as the lift required to erode such strong inhibition will
largely remain displaced north of the forecast area in the
Central Plains. As a result, some weakening seems very likely the
farther east storms progress, with convection largely expected to
fall below severe limits around or perhaps before the time it has
advanced into the I-35 corridor late Monday night. Before then,
there will at least be some potential for isolated strong or
severe convection in western North Texas, largely west of I-35 and
north of I-20 late Monday evening. The eventual convective mode
(which is still uncertain) will dictate the possible hazards,
with isolated discrete cells maintaining a hail threat while
growth into linear segment(s) would increase a potential wind
threat. This system is not expected to be a heavy rain or flood
producer, with most areas likely seeing less than 0.25" of rain.
The Pacific front may slow or stall across portions of
East/Central Texas on Tuesday which could allow for some
redevelopment and/or reintensification of activity across far
eastern portions of the CWA. All activity should finally move off
to the east in the afternoon with much drier air arriving within
westerly near-surface flow. This will lead to a warmer and rain-
free midweek period, with highs climbing into the 80s and even
lower 90s by Wednesday.
There is still an above-average amount of uncertainty during the
late week period and heading into next weekend, but guidance has
come into slightly better alignment on the arrival of a cold front
during the Thursday/Friday time frame. Some convective chances
will probably exist immediately along this boundary as it
arrives, although the degree of pre-frontal moisture return and
amount of upper-level ascent are still uncertain, and those
factors will end up dictating rain coverage with the initial
frontal passage. The greater rain chances will probably lag a
couple of days behind the front`s arrival, as secondary
disturbances result in a robust overrunning regime above the cool
post-frontal airmass. While this setup will largely mitigate the
risk for severe convection aside from perhaps some hail, it could
bring another bout of heavy rainfall to some areas with an
attendant flood risk. There are still large discrepancies as to
where the frontal boundary may eventually stall and where a
heavier rain axis could materialize, and these details likely
won`t be known for at least a few more days.
-Stalley
&&
.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06z TAFs/
Challenges through the first half of the D10 area forecast
through 00z Tuesday will be timing categorical trends and
adjustments of cigs, especially during the afternoon hours as
moisture depth of nearly 50mb will be way more than seen
yesterday, thus keeping stratus around through the 18z-21z period
today. Southerly winds Southerly winds will between 15-20 kts with
gusts to 30 kts+ at times will occur through tonight. Scattered
TSRA will impact the region, particularly North TX from I-20 to
the Red River Valley this evening. As 925mb flow cranks up to
at/above 55-60 kts after nightfall, the warm advection coupled
with increasing ascent will bring some spotty -SHRA to the
airports after 01z, with a window for potential TSRA between
04z-06z or 07z. For now, with exact coverage and timing in
question due to a capping inversion still present over the region,
I have elected to only introduce VCSH/VCTS at this time. We`ll
continue to refine these convective trends, as well as this
morning`s IFR/MVFR stratus in the 12z TAFs and beyond.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 68 81 68 86 67 / 0 10 50 5 0
Waco 67 80 67 86 69 / 0 5 30 10 0
Paris 65 78 65 82 67 / 0 10 40 40 5
Denton 65 80 66 85 62 / 0 10 60 5 0
McKinney 66 79 67 85 67 / 0 10 50 10 0
Dallas 68 81 68 87 68 / 0 10 40 10 0
Terrell 65 80 67 83 68 / 0 5 40 20 0
Corsicana 67 81 68 84 70 / 0 5 30 20 0
Temple 66 80 67 85 68 / 0 5 20 10 0
Mineral Wells 66 82 66 88 59 / 0 20 60 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$