Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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743 FXUS64 KFWD 021916 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 216 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024 ...New Long Term... .SHORT TERM... /Issued 143 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024/ /Through Friday afternoon/ Mostly cloudy conditions continue over much of our area as the bulk of this morning`s precipitation already moved towards southeast Texas. A fairly dry afternoon is expected for most of us, but a few scattered showers and storms may develop late afternoon and evening across portions of North Texas. This will be ahead of an approaching low pressure system/cold front currently over West Texas. This system is expected to slide eastward this evening and tonight and may result in another round of scattered storms mainly west of I-35 and along the Red River. The greatest chances for severe weather remains west of Highway 281 this evening and tonight, but if storms are able to grow upscale as they move east/southeast into Central Texas, the threat may shift farther east. Confidence remain low of how widespread this activity will be given the weak flow aloft and the lack of strong ascent. But at least scattered showers and storms will continue through Friday morning before most of the activity moves east of our area. If any lingering boundary remains near our area, there could be some additional isolated convection during the afternoon hours but confidence remains low (less than 20%). Otherwise, cloudy conditions will keep our temperatures below average on Friday as well with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Sanchez && .LONG TERM... /NEW/ /Friday Night and Beyond/ Scattered thunderstorm development is likely along the dryline west of our forecast area late Friday afternoon. Initial activity will likely take on more discrete/semi-discrete supercellular structures capable of producing all storm hazards. It is a bit uncertain how far east this convection maintains into our area, but a majority of the CAM guidance keeps at least a low end severe weather threat along/west of Highway 281 late Friday evening lessening in intensity as this cluster/broken line of thunderstorms approaches the I-35 corridor during the overnight. The Thursday cold front will push back south toward North Texas Saturday morning with most medium-range guidance suggesting the frontal boundary will stall somewhere north of I-20 by Saturday afternoon. This boundary will provide a source of lift for scattered shower and thunderstorm development in a continually moisture-rich environment during the day Saturday. With the front acting as a focal point for thunderstorm development, the greater rain chances (50-60%) will settle generally along/north of I-20 Saturday. Confidence is increasing in a more widespread, impactful rainfall event Saturday night into Sunday as guidance continues to suggest a potent, compact mid-level shortwave will shift over this stalled frontal boundary. Deep moisture and more than sufficient instability will likely allow for thunderstorm development near the triple point located in West Texas late Saturday afternoon/evening. An increasing 30-40 kt low-level jet will provide the needed warm/moist advection to maintain this activity into our forecast area Saturday night and may lead to additional development ahead of this complex across North and Central Texas. The primary threats will be heavy rainfall, large hail, and damaging winds. However, backed surface winds, low LCLs, and some low-level curvature in forecast hodographs highlight at least a low end potential for tornadoes as well, especially west of I-35 as this activity enters our forecast area. Additional thunderstorm development is possible Sunday afternoon but will be largely dependent upon the position of frontal boundaries and any lingering outflow boundaries. Ensemble guidance continues to highlight another storm system entering the Plains in the Monday-Tuesday timeframe. This could bring chances for storms back to North Texas, however the best synoptic-scale lift looks to remain north of our forecast area as of now. By the middle of next week, low-level southwesterly flow and a building upper-level ridge over the Gulf Coast region will allow for afternoon temperatures to rise into the mid-80s to low 90s by the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe next week. Keep up with the forecast over the next several days as we further refine the details of this messy, mid-spring weather pattern! Langfeld && .AVIATION... /Issued 143 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024/ /18Z TAFs/ Concerns...Thunderstorm chances this afternoon and tonight. Another round of MVFR/IFR ceilings overnight into Friday. Widespread cloud cover continues this afternoon, but most of the ceilings remain VFR with southerly winds around 8-12 kts. The main concern this afternoon will be the potential for a few storms impacting some of the DFW Metroplex sites. Based on the latest high-res models, isolated storms may develop near the area between 22- 02Z. Severe weather is not expected with this activity, but occasional lighting can be expected. Another round of showers and storms may develop overnight, but confidence remain low on how widespread this activity will be. For now, we kept the VCTS from 06- 11Z with most of the activity moving east/southeast after that. Otherwise, MVFR/IFR ceilings return after midnight tonight and persist through at least mid-morning Friday. Sanchez && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 68 83 69 82 68 / 50 20 30 60 60 Waco 67 82 69 80 68 / 50 30 20 40 50 Paris 66 81 66 80 65 / 50 30 20 60 50 Denton 65 82 67 81 66 / 50 20 30 60 70 McKinney 66 82 67 80 68 / 50 30 20 60 60 Dallas 68 83 69 82 68 / 50 30 20 60 60 Terrell 66 81 67 82 67 / 50 30 20 50 50 Corsicana 68 82 69 83 69 / 50 30 20 40 50 Temple 67 81 69 82 68 / 50 30 10 30 40 Mineral Wells 64 82 67 82 66 / 60 20 40 60 80 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$