National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS64 KFWD 111715
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1215 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Now through Friday Afternoon/

As the upper low that provided our earlier week rain chances
continues to advance into the deep south, upper level ridging will
begin to build in across the Central Plains. This will set the stage
for a tranquil end to the weekend. The post-frontal surface high
will slide through North and Central Texas later this afternoon.
As this high approaches the region through the afternoon, surface
winds will be on the increase in response to the tightened surface
pressure gradient. Even with ample sunshine, northerly winds will
keep afternoon high temperatures in the upper 60s to upper 70s.
Wind speeds will quickly die down over this evening as the high
center moves overtop the CWA and the boundary layer begins to
decouple.

Tonight will be a good night for radiational cooling, as light
winds, dry conditions, and clear skies are expected. Expect
a slightly cooler-than-normal morning, with lows in the mid 40s
to low 50s. The surface high should be located in the Gulf of
Mexico by daybreak, bringing return flow to the region during the
overnight hours. With the aforementioned upper ridging building
in and southerly flow, expect a warm up going into Friday
afternoon. High temperatures will peak into the mid 70s to mid
80s. Skies should remain relatively clear through the first half
of the day, but by late afternoon a plume of cirrus will begin to
stream in from the west/southwest via the Subtropical Jet.

Prater

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 424 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024/
/Friday night through Mid-Next Week/

A steady warming trend continues over the weekend with widespread
temperatures in the 80s. A few locations across the Big Country
may even see 90F which is around 10-12 degrees above normal for
mid April. While the zonal flow aloft and the surface high
pressure to our east will keep us precipitation free, moisture
and clouds will be spreading northward into our region. Breezy
southerly winds are expected both days with occasional gusts near
30 mph possible. Other than the breezy conditions, this weekend
is looking very nice for outdoor activities.

The quiet period will come to an end early next week as another
storm system approaches from the west. Latest guidance shows a
strong upper level trough moving across the Four Corners during
the day on Monday. However, uncertainty remains high on the
evolution and how fast it will lift to the northeast across the
central U.S. Not only this will impact the arrival of the large-
scale ascent, but also the surface response and where a dryline
will develop. The most likely scenario at this time is that the
dryline and organized convection will develop across West Texas
in the afternoon. While forecast soundings across our region show
and maintain a decent cap through the afternoon hours, it is
still to early to rule out the potential for a few showers/storms
ahead of the boundary. Some strong to severe storms are expected
in the afternoon, mainly across the activity near the dryline.
The threat for severe storms will continue into the evening hours
as the main activity enters our western and northwestern
counties. We will keep at least low chances for showers/storms
Monday night across much of North and Central Texas, but expect
changes in the forecast over the next several days as details are
refined. Unfortunately, we will remain in this unsettled pattern
through at least mid-week which will result in at least scattered
showers and storms. With the main upper trough located far to our
north, the focus of precipitation will likely be near any
leftover surface boundary or dryline. Otherwise, breezy
conditions can be expected over much of next week.

Sanchez

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/

VFR will prevail through the period, with high level cirrus moving
across the region tomorrow morning. Occasionally gusty northerly
winds will persist through the afternoon at the airports, before
decreasing in speeds this evening. A surface high will move
through North and Central Texas tonight, shifting winds from N to
E, and then eventually returning all airports to southerly flow
just after midnight. Speeds will be light (< 5kts), and
potentially variable at times.

Wind speeds will perk up once again by mid-late tomorrow morning,
to around 15 kts with occasional higher gusts through the end of
the period.

Prater

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    73  52  80  59  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                75  49  78  56  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               68  44  76  54  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              71  46  80  55  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            72  47  78  56  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              74  52  80  59  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             72  47  77  54  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           73  50  79  56  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              75  49  80  55  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       73  47  82  55  83 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$