Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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122 FXUS64 KFWD 011929 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 229 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024 ...New Long Term... .SHORT TERM... /Issued 207 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024/ /Through Thursday/ After our brief break, another period of unsettled weather begins later today. The 70F isodrosotherm is already within our CWA, with even richer boundary-layer moisture approaching Central Texas. It`s within this deeper moisture that bubbles on visible satellite and weak echoes on radar are foreshadowing the convective potential later this afternoon. Just south of our southern boundary, MLCAPE values exceed 2000 J/kg and MUCAPE values top 3000 J/kg owing to steep mid-level lapse rates. Although these initial convective attempts are separated from the boundary layer, effective erosion of the remaining inhibition should allow for updrafts to be rooted in the rich surface layer. Deep-layer shear and classically veered profiles will favor supercells. These storms would have a tendency to move north faster than the buoyant boundary layer can advect, and they may weaken as they ingest the somewhat cooler, cloud- stifled parcels within our CWA. Nonetheless, the more enduring cells could still pose a wind/hail threat, and low LCLs and adequate 0-1km shear will maintain a tornado threat. Some of these storms may survive as far north as the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex after dark. A West Texas dryline will come alive late this afternoon. The mid-level impulse responsible for the initiation will be further enhanced by the convection as it approaches North and Central Texas this evening. There may be little separation in space and time between the activity mentioned in the paragraph above and the subsequent round that will arrive later in the evening and through the overnight hours. Discrete hail cores will eventually give way to a more linear complex that will primarily pose a wind threat. While wetting rainfall is anticipated for much if not all of the region, our main focus for flooding remains within the ongoing Flood Watch where positive soil moisture anomalies from recent rainfall coincide with the greatest QPF from tonight`s event. However, heavy rainfall outside of the watch area could also reaggravate flooding issues elsewhere. Some showers or storms may linger in its wake, but the main MCS should exit into East Texas around daybreak Thursday morning. A lull in convective activity should follow on Thursday, but the atmosphere may be able to recharge by afternoon. Another round of warm-advection showers and storms could spread north across the region by late Thursday afternoon. While these cells would likely be less organized and generally less robust than their predecessors 24 hours earlier, they could still pose a wind/hail threat. However, the more significant storm potential will accompany a cold front that will approach our northwestern frontier Thursday evening. 25 && .LONG TERM... /NEW/ /Thursday Night and Beyond/ This unsettled weather pattern will continue into the weekend with periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms expected through at least late Sunday. A cold front will sag south toward the Red River Valley Thursday evening with a dryline extending south out of southwestern Oklahoma toward the Texas Big Bend region. Convection initiation will likely take place near the triple point and along the dryline well west of our forecast area as surface dewpoints in the upper 60s/low 70s and 3000-3500 J/kg MLCAPE pool ahead of these features. Initial storm mode will likely begin as discrete/semi- discrete supercells, but transition to clusters of cells and possibly an MCS Thursday night as this activity shifts into our forecast area. Sporadic hail and a few strong to severe wind gusts will be the primary hazards. This activity should be progressive enough to preclude any widespread flooding concerns, but with the recent rainfall and saturated soils, a localized threat for flash flooding may develop late Thursday night into Friday morning, especially east of I-35. Much of the region will likely remain dry through the remainder of Friday, although isolated to scattered convection will be possible in the vicinity of the frontal boundary meandering near the Red River Valley and along any lingering outflow boundaries from the morning activity, primarily east of I-35. Additional development may occur across portions of West Texas along a dryline late Friday afternoon and push toward our western zones late Friday evening/night. Isolated severe hail and damaging wind gusts would be possible if this activity is able to maintain into our western zones. More widespread rainfall is expected once again Saturday as another cold front is progged to shift into North Texas. Especially Saturday night into Sunday morning as guidance continues to suggest a more potent shortwave trough will move overhead this frontal boundary. By late Sunday into early Monday, the front will lift north, leaving our area mostly precip-free into early next week. Ensemble guidance continues to highlight the strengthening of a mid-level ridge over portions of the Gulf Coast and northern Mexico by midweek next week. Rising mid-level heights and increasing south-southwesterly low-level flow will push temperatures into the mid/upper 80s, possibly lower 90s, by the middle portions of next week. With a humid airmass remaining overhead, heat index values could rise into the mid/upper 90s, possibly nearing 100 degrees across portions of Central Texas, by Wednesday/Thursday of next week. Summer is coming. I hope y`all are ready, because I`m not :( Langfeld && .AVIATION... /Issued 207 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024/ /18Z TAFs/ Concerns include thunder potential and IFR ceilings Thursday. MVFR ceilings will eventually climb above 3kft AGL this afternoon though this process will be slower across Central Texas. These clouds have slowed the warming of the surface layer, which is still separated from the stronger momentum air within the cloud- bearing layer. The 18Z TAF tempers wind speeds, but somewhat stronger sustained speeds with higher gusts may still occur later this afternoon. Convective attempts continue to struggle across Central Texas, but guidance maintains the potential for storms to impact the Waco terminal late this afternoon. The introduction of VCTS is the same warm-advection activity that may trek as far north as the Dallas/ Fort Worth for the initial TEMPO group in the Metroplex (02-04Z). The main MCS with wind potential will be after midnight along the I-35 corridor, thankfully during the nocturnal minimum for aviation operations. Some showers/storms may trail behind the MCS, but the TAFs endeavor to limit the duration of TS. After the thunderstorm winds subside, a period of low-level wind shear may follow (not currently included). IFR ceilings will then follow and persist throughout the daylight hours of Thursday morning. Reductions in visibility are likely above the rain-soaked ground, but the ceilings will determine the flight category. 25 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 68 81 68 83 68 / 70 70 50 20 30 Waco 67 80 69 82 68 / 80 70 30 20 20 Paris 66 76 66 80 65 / 60 90 70 40 20 Denton 66 81 66 83 67 / 70 60 50 20 30 McKinney 67 79 67 83 67 / 70 70 60 30 30 Dallas 68 81 69 83 69 / 70 70 50 30 30 Terrell 67 79 67 82 67 / 80 80 50 30 20 Corsicana 68 81 70 83 68 / 80 90 40 30 20 Temple 67 81 70 83 68 / 80 50 30 20 20 Mineral Wells 67 84 66 84 66 / 70 30 40 20 30 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Thursday afternoon for TXZ121-122-134-135-142>148-156>162-174-175. && $$