Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 262353
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
653 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Winds continue to diminish through the afternoon.

- Slight chance for a little light snow or flurries late tonight
  into Wednesday morning.

- Dry with near normal temperatures for the end of the week.

- There is a low chance for precipitation (mainly rain) late
  Saturday night, with a better chance for a rain/snow mix
  Sunday night through Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 147 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

A cold upper low over the Northern Plains and surface high
pressure situated north to south across the plains states this
afternoon and tonight will result in cold overnight lows around
5 (north)to 15 (south) degrees above zero. Warm advection along
the western fringes of the surface high will bring increasing
clouds and maybe a little light snow or flurries to the area
late tonight into Wednesday morning. The advancing warm
advection may help keep temperatures from dropping even lower
given the light winds and lack of sky cover early. If the warm
advection is a little slower moving in from the west, perhaps
lows drop a little more. This will be something the
evening/overnight shifts will need to monitor. Perhaps where
warm advection is maximized we could see a little light
snow/flurries move into the area late tonight into Wednesday
morning. The NBM is depicting some slight chance pops moving
into west from around Cambridge to perhaps as far east as Alma.
A number of CAMS are depicting light reflectivities approaching
from the west and a couple are squeezing out some light qpf. The
problem is there is little consistency in placement from north
to south. Something else to monitor overnight, but at this time
we are expecting little or no accums and little or now impacts.

A warm front pushes through the area late Wednesday bringing a
significant warm-up. Overnight lows Wednesday night will be
around 10-20 degrees warmer than tonight, with daytime highs
Thursday also a good 10-15 degrees warmer than Wednesday. Dry
and seasonable temperatures continue through the end of the work
week.

A more complex and uncertain split upper flow pattern looks to
take shape over the weekend and into next week. Late in the work
week, we see a broad west to southwest upper level flow across
the Plains states with an impulse or two tracking north of the
state associated with a developing upper low in the northern
stream. A cold front moves through on Friday but looks to be
mostly dry, but there may be a post frontal shower as shortwave
energy traverses the state. Another shortwave may bring some
light precipitation to mainly northern portions of the forecast
area Saturday night into Sunday. This is ahead of an upper
trough and/or developing upper low over the Southwest U.S.

Another wave may bring better chances of light qpf Sunday night
into Monday. A cluster analysis centered on the Sunday/Monday
timeframe shows a number of solutions from both the development
of the northern and southern stream waves, but all clusters look
to bring at least some light qpf to most of the forecast area,
with heavier qpf favored over the northern forecast area. The
NBM probabilities of a tenth of an inch qpf ending 12Z Monday
ranges from 30-40 percent north of I-80 to less than 20 percent
across northern Kansas. Rain looks to be the dominant
precipitation type, with a rain and snow mix possible north.
Probabilities of an inch of snow ending 12Z Monday are limited
to the far northern CWA and currently stand at less than 20
percent. Uncertainty in how this split flow transpires early
next week increases even more beyond Monday but it`s certainly
something we will need to monitor.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 649 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

Clear skies early this evening will give way to gradually
increasing mid to high clouds late tonight and especially into
Wednesday morning. The wind will become light after sunset this
evening and then generally remain less than 10 kts through the
day on Wednesday.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hamilton
AVIATION...Wesely


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