199
FXUS61 KGYX 092122
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
522 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cool and unsettled weather pattern is expected through the
next several days as a longwave trough gradually crosses the
area. Although day-to-day details are relatively uncertain,
there will be several opportunities for rain showers through
this time. No days are expected to be washouts, however. Below-
average temperatures are expected through the end of this week
and this weekend, then will start to trend warmer next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Update...
A very gradual drying process continues from the north this
evening with scattered to broken cloud decks across the region.
Showers continue to form along the Maine and New Hampshire
border early this evening. This is along and near an inverted
trough over the forecast area. This precipitation should
dissipate after sunset.

By morning, expect temperatures to bottom out in the 30s in the
north to the 40s across the south. Fog should remain less
prevailent for the overnight period as compared to last night.

Prev Disc...
Not a lot of change with expectations for the remainder of this
afternoon. Mostly cloudy skies for much of the area will
continue with some showers around with CAMs favoring just either
side of the ME/NH border for these. This is meshing well with
what`s currently being observed on radar, so I have 40-60%
stretching roughly from the Whites extending down into SW ME
over the next couple hours. Closer to sunset expect a few of
these farther west into NH. Accumulations will remain light
ranging from a few hundredths to a tenth of an inch or so. These
showers will dwindle for the most part by or just after sunset
although can`t completely discount a couple continuing a little
longer. Quiet conditions expected the rest of tonight for most
of the area although there is a slight chance that far southern
NH sees a little bit of light rain overnight and toward
daybreak, but most model guidance keeps this mainly south. As
far as cloud cover, northern and eastern areas will probably see
some partial clearing this evening into tonight as the N/NE
brings in some drier air, and these areas may reach the mid-
upper 30s if enough clearing occurs. Elsewhere, lows are
forecast to be in the lower-mid 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Weak high pressure center sets up to the northeast of the area
Friday into Friday night resulting in a prevailing light east to
northeast flow. Overall the atmosphere will be drier than
today, but forecast soundings continue to show a decent amount
of moisture aloft either side of 850mb, especially over into NH.
So I think NH will stay mostly cloudy, particularly farther to
the south and west one goes. As we get farther to the north and
east over into western Maine, moisture isn`t as high, so there
should be more sun. Similar to today, expect a some light shower
activity through the course of the day, but amounts will be
light, and most will remain dry. High temperatures will be in
the 50s to lower 60s.

Friday night looks quiet with partly cloudy skies. Temperatures are
generally expected temperatures a couple of degrees either side of
40 but could be a bit cooler if skies clear out a little longer.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A long-wave trough overhead will define the extended forecast
period, with embedded shortwaves providing periods of rain
showers around the region. Temperatures will fall within
seasonal norms, with below-average conditions under more
maritime influence this weekend transitioning to near- or above-
average as the trough shifts east and allows drier, warmer,
continental air to filter in next week. Overall, not expecting
any weather impacts besides perhaps some dense fog at times...
though there is little confidence in where, when, or if that
happens given the nebulous nature of the pattern at this time.

Starting Saturday... low pressure will be tracking
northeastward well offshore over the Atlantic, while high
pressure sits over Maritime Canada. The flow regime promotes an
east to northeast flow into the forecast area, and right now
appears to be a fairly dry airmass with the exception of the sea
breeze. This should make for a fairly pleasant day across the
forecast area, with good mixing allowing for temperatures over
the interior to warm to near 60. The coastal plain however sill
see more of an onshore contribution, limiting temperatures to
the 50s. The degree to which the sun makes an appearance will
naturally have a bearing on sensible weather too... the
fortunate news is that low clouds don`t appear to be much of a
factor with dry low-level air, although mixed mid-level decks
appear to be likely with partly to mostly cloudy skies expected.
More overcast conditions may be present over western New
Hampshire north into the mountains where moisture convergence is
maximized, and where a few showers are possible as well.

Upper level low pressure settles overhead by Sunday with a very
weak pressure gradient, which will once again allow a sea
breeze to develop amid light background flow. Though low
confidence... there is model agreement with deeper moisture
building across the region allowing for more cloud development
Saturday night into Sunday. Model guidance is mixed for
precipitation chances on Sunday, but in general increasing
cyclonic flow and mixing should at least contribute a diurnal
component to rain shower activity on Sunday.

The upper level trough shifts east into Monday with shortwave
ridging briefly building to start the coming work week. This
should offer a brief period where we actually manage to have
minimal precipitation chances... although timing that out may be
a challenge in the short-wave driven pattern, especially as it
turns a bit more zonal before another trough wanders in around
mid-week. All in all, the trough shifting east brings the
reasonable expectation for a warming trend, on average, early in
the week as a southerly to southwesterly flow regime takes
over. Current model consensus brings widespread 60s and 70s,
coolest in the mountains where clouds are most likely and along
the coast with a southerly component to flow. Though, increasing
humidity and ripples in the upper wave pattern continues
potential for rain showers... especially as a warm front
overtakes the region, followed by potential for a more organized
system around mid-week with the next long wave trough.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Short Term...Even though it will remain mostly cloudy through
Friday night, the forecast has trended toward mostly VFR for the
Maine terminals. For NH, there is more potential for MVFR
ceilings through this evening and Friday along with some
showers. However, coverage of showers is expected to be low
enough that TEMPOS or prevailing SHRA will not be needed.

Long Term...VFR likely to persist through Sat with light NE or
E flow AOB 15 kts. Beyond that, forecast confidence in
restrictions falls off a cliff, with potential for lowered CIGs
Sat night through Sun along with -SHRA. The pattern in general
from Sun into next week favors periodic restrictions, mainly
CIG, and light flow allowing daily sea breezes. But, this is a
particularly low-confidence forecast in terms of timing and day-
to-day details.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Low pressure east of the waters and weak high
pressure to the north will temporarily tighten the pressure
gradient through this evening with wind increasing to around 20
kt. Winds then diminish tonight into Friday and remaining out of
the northeast with the weak high to the north and east. Low
pressure emerges off the Mid-Atlantic coast Friday night, and
winds may veer to more easterly but still remaining below SCA
levels.

Long Term...Light flow and quiet seas are expected over the
extended forecast period with SCA conditions unlikely to occur.
In general, winds this weekend will be NE, then will turn out of
the SW to start the next week however daily sea breezes and a
nebulous pressure gradient will muddy this progression a bit.
The best chance for 25+ kt winds, right now, comes around Tue
with a more organized system potentially crossing the region.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
High astronomical tides combined with around 0.5-0.7 feet of
storm surge may push water levels to around minor flood stage
around the time of high tide tonight. A Coastal Flood Advisory
or Statement may be necessary, however any impacts will be very
minor.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
Cannon/Casey