947
FXUS66 KHNX 010941
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
241 AM PDT Wed May 1 2024


.KEY MESSAGES...

1. High temperatures will change little today, remaining around
climatological averages for this time of year.

2. Warming conditions are forecast for the end of the work week
with highs around 3 to 7 degrees above normal on Friday.
Probabilities of exceedance for 85 degrees in the San Joaquin
Valley are around 50%.

3. Ensemble guidance is trending towards a weekend storm system
bringing snowfall to the Sierra Nevada and periods of rainfall
to the San Joaquin Valley.

4. High temperatures are forecast to cool to around 10 to 15
degrees below normal by Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Strong wind gusts continue along the Mojave Desert Slopes where
a High Wind Warning remains in effect until 5 AM this morning.
The SFO-LAS pressure gradient increased to 12 mb, up from 10 mb
24 hours ago. The Mojave ASOS (KMHV) measured a peak wind gust
of 64 mph last evening.

A broad upper trough remains over the west with an upper ridge
over the Eastern Pacific. Temperatures changed little on Tuesday
with highs right around climatological normals for this time of
year. A persistence forecast is for little changes again today.
A subtle increase in heights and thickness values will translate
into high temperatures around 2 to 4 degrees above normal. Short
wave ridging on Friday nudges max temperatures to 3 to 7 degrees
above normal. Probabilities for a high temperature of 84 degrees
or higher in the San Joaquin Valley on Friday are generally from
50 to 75 percent.

Ensemble analysis shows an upper low dropping down over northern
California on Saturday then shifting east over the Great Basin
on Sunday. Precipitation chances develop late Saturday morning
and continue through Sunday afternoon. Snow levels begin above
8000 feet on Saturday then lower to 5000 to 6000 feet on Sunday.
The Probabilistic Winter Storm Severity Index (WSSI-P) has a 50%
chance for moderate winter storm impacts around Yosemite NP this
weekend. The Excessive Rainfall Outlook (ERO) has marginal risk
(5-14%) painted along the Sierra Foothills of Mariposa, Madera,
and Fresno Counties on Saturday. But there is still quite a bit
of uncertainty regarding the timing, track, and strength of this
system. Based on the current track, temperatures are forecast to
cool to 10 to 15 degrees below normal by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail across central CA for at least the
next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until 5 AM PDT early this morning for CAZ338.

&&

$$

DCH

weather.gov/hanford