824
FXUS63 KICT 050444
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1144 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Increasing chances for rain/embedded thunderstorms over far
  southern and southeast Kansas later tonight through Sunday.

- Severe weather outbreak potential Monday afternoon-night.

- Overall fairly quiet weather expected after Monday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 244 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Rain with embedded thunderstorm chances will increase from the
southwest later tonight, and persist through Sunday, mainly over far
southern and southeast Kansas, as an upper trough traverses the
Southern Plains. Model trends have continued to shift these rain
chances a bit further south each run. The latest HREF consensus
keeps the greatest threat for heavy rainfall from near the KS/OK
border of far southeast KS on south into OK. The severe weather
threat looks minimal over Kansas given poor lapse rates and marginal
instability,

Our attention then turns to the potential for scattered to numerous
thunderstorms Monday afternoon-night across the region, as a
potent/deep shortwave trough and attendant dryline approach from the
west, amidst an increasingly moist/unstable airmass across the
Central and Southern Plains. The anomalous combination of
buoyancy/shear (as highlighted by the NAEFS and EPS) favors severe
thunderstorms, some of which could produce "higher-end" severe
weather in the form of very large hail, damaging winds, and
tornadoes, some of which could be strong.

Latest model trends support the greatest threat for discrete
supercells (and associated greater threat for higher-end severe
weather) across mainly the southern half of KS and into OK, where
mid-upper flow is oriented more perpendicular to the dryline. A
handful of NAM-GFS-ECMWF point forecast soundings up and down the
dryline from mainly the southern half of KS south into OK continue
to indicate a potential kinematic and thermodynamic environment
similar to some past higher-end and even historic severe weather and
tornado events. Further north across mainly the northern half of KS
and into NE, storm mode could be rather messy given stronger
forcing, and a more meridional component to mid-upper flow, which
could tend to limit higher-end severe potential with northward
extent. We will continue to monitor these trends in the upper jet
placement and alignment.

A another piece of uncertainty in the forecast surrounds the extent
of warm/moist sector low clouds throughout the day, owing to rapid
low-level quality moisture return. Too much moisture advection would
tend to keep low clouds locked in through the day, which would limit
insolation and associated peak heating destabilization, especially
with northward extent. This scenario is especially highlighted by
the NAM and RAP. Not enough instability would temper higher-end
severe chances and/or keep these chances further south.

All-in-all, there remains potential for higher-end severe weather
across the region Monday afternoon-night in the form of very large
hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes, some of which could be strong.
We will continue to diagnose the above uncertainty and issue timely
forecast updates.

After Monday night, the large-scale synoptic pattern favors mostly
quiet and dry weather across the Kansas region through at least the
end of next week, with a gradual slight cooling trend through the
week. Wednesday afternoon-evening could be interesting severe
thunderstorm-wise over extreme southeast Kansas, but latest model
trends have pushed the greatest threat further east-southeast.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

VFR conditions are expected to start out this TAF period. By 09Z
to 11Z this morning. MVFR and possibly IFR conditions are
expected to encroach on the region. KICT, KHUT and KCNU are the
most likely terminals to see the lower flight categories. KHUT
is the least likely of the three. Showers and thunderstorms will
also be possible but at this time, feel KHUT and KICT will not
see any precipitation so kept it out of the TAF for this cycle.
KCNU on the other hand now appears to have a good chance for
showers and thunderstorms during the morning hours. Rain and
thunder at KCNU is expected to come to an end by 18Z to 20Z this
afternoon. After the rain stops, MVFR CIGs are expected to
continue through the rest of the TAF period. KSLN, KRSL and KGBD
are likely to become overcast but should remain VFR for this TAF
period.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...ELM