Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 221139
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
639 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler on Saturday with temperatures in the 50s area wide.

- Very strong winds in excess of 45 to 50 mph becoming more
  likely on Sunday.

- Increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms Saturday
  night through early Monday, with a brief transition to snow
  possible over parts of central Kansas early Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 345 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

An embedded/subtle shortwave rounded the western ridge early this
morning and will move over the region today driving a cold front
across the area. Areas of dense fog continues to impact portions of
south central, east central, and southeast KS this morning.

A cold front will be on the doorstep of central KS by sunrise and
will swiftly move southeast across the area today. Expect gusty
north winds in the wake of the cold front. A few stronger gusts of
30 to 40 mph will be possible behind the front with elevated winds
lingering into the early evening before diminishing tonight. With
cool air advecting across the area today, high temperatures will be
knocked down into the mid 50s across central KS. The later arrival
of the front will allow for temperatures in far southeast KS to
climb into the upper 60s to near 70. Can`t rule out a brief shower
or weak storm across southeast KS this afternoon with 500J/kg ML
CAPE in the area. No strong or severe storms expected.

Tonight, a system over the Pacific NW will start to amplify into a
west CONUS trough, while slowly pushing south. A strong (160-175kt)
west-east jet streak will help broaden out the base of the
developing western trough, with the left exit region overspreading
the area thru the weekend. The 250mb jet dynamics will couple with a
stout 60kt 850mb jet to enhance ascent across the area bringing
increased chances (50-75% chance) of precipitation to the area.

Wind concerns for the weekend: Lee troughing will begin to ramp up
across western KS tomorrow with a sfc low forming by tomorrow night.
The sfc pressure gradient will only tighten across the region as the
sfc low strengths with eastern edge of the broad trough/lead wave
approaching for Sunday. There is increasing potential to see strong,
if not severe, non-thunderstorm wind gusts Sunday of 45-60 mph.
Soundings indicate 50 to 60kts of flow at 900-850mb which will be
mixable down to the sfc by the afternoon and early evening hours
Sunday. NBM probability of exceeding 50 mph is nearly 99%
across much of central, south central KS and portions of the
Flint Hills. When moving up to 58mph, probability of exceedance
drops significantly across much of the area with only portions
of central KS west of I- 135 with exceedance probabilities
ranging from 40-65%. Further support, the ECMWF Extreme Forecast
Index highlights a shift of tails over the region for wind
gusts, highlighting the rarity of the forecast.

The lead wave through the broad based trough will eject out
over the Central Plains late Sunday afternoon/early evening. A
few severe storms will be possible, however there remains some
uncertainty there depending where the dryline lines up late
Sunday and how quickly any storms grow upscale given the
significant large scale ascent.

Winter weather Monday in central KS? Low confidence in any winter
concerns on the backside of the system for early Monday morning.
Surface temperatures in the 25-75th percentiles range from 29 to 35
degrees. Best chance of seeing snow or a mix will be from Barton and
Russell Counties and points northwest, no meaningful impacts
expected at this time.

The sfc low and lead wave eject northeast of the area Monday,
however the area will remain in broad troughing to near zonal
flow through mid week. This will keep the door open for
additional compact shortwaves to move through the area. As we
get into late week the spread in the large scale pattern across
models increases, though there is some consensus in a larger
system setting up once again off/along the west coast.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 639 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

LIFR/IFR stratus cigs/fog vsbys will improve with the passage of
a cold front this morning. Strong and gusty north winds will
prevail in the wake of the front from late morning through the
afternoon hours along with some post-frontal VFR stratocu
bases/cigs across eastern Kansas. North winds will diminish late
this evening and become northeasterly.

KED

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 355 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

Gusty north winds are expected behind a cold front that will
move southeast across the area today, this will bring a few
patches of very high fire danger to areas west of the Flint
Hills.

Very strong and gusty south winds are expected Sunday, wind
gusts exceeding 50 mph are likely area wide. Minimum humidity
will range from 50 to 66% across the area with precipitation
chances as high as 60% will limit most elevated fire concerns.
Even so, very high fire danger will remain possible west of
I-135 for a few hours in the afternoon, especially given some
uncertainty where the dryline will set up.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for KSZ053-069-
070-082-083-091>094-098.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KMB
AVIATION...KED
FIRE WEATHER...


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